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Top tryscorer market- Get on the All Blacks wingers to go all green

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Rugby expert Geoffrey Riddle tell us why the history books suggest Sivivatu and Rokococo are the men to be on

In the 1995 World Cup, New Zealand flyer Marc Ellis crossed Japan's tryline six times in the All Blacks 145-17 plucking of the Cherry Blossoms. It was chiefly this performance that propelled him to be the joint-top tryscorer with Jonah Lomu on seven tries.
Although Ellis fitted the profile of a World Cup top-tryscorer, it was not until his team's third Pool match that he achieved that remarkable feat. At RWC 2003, Chris Latham scored five times against Namibia and Josh Lewsey also plundered five tries in England's 111-13 thrashing of Uruguay.

Neither scored the most tries in the tournament as six has been the minimum requirement. This is clearly a delicate market once the tournament gets underway.
The statistics are clear however. Only once in the previous five tournaments has the top tryscorer not been a Kiwi, and in every instance, the winner, or joint-winner, has been a winger. New Zealand fullback Mils Muliaina broke the stranglehold of wingers at the last World Cup by sharing the honours with fellow All Black Doug Howlett, but in the main, Nos. 11 and 14 should be focussed on.
I
t is unsurprising therefore, to see that Sitiveni Sivivatu and Joe Rokocoko head the market at around 5.6. Sivivatu owes his favouritism to his greater strike-rate (17 tries from 17 caps), while Rokocoko weighs in with 38 tries from 45 caps, but both have scored three tries each this calendar year. The All Blacks have scored an average of just over four tries per match since the start of 2005 - more than any other major team ¬- and no other side in the tournament can match their form away from home which stands at 16 from 21 since the last World Cup.
New Zealand have possibly the easiest Pool out of all the group favourites with Scotland, Italy, Romania, and in Portugal, they have the biggest mismatch, in terms of world rankings, in the whole tournament.

Graham Henry's charges also benefit from a charmed fixture list with a minimum six-day break between Pool matches. If you are going to back any of the Kiwis though, it makes sense to get on early as Italy could easily put out an under-strength side on Saturday due to their match with Romania on Tuesday (they did so in a similar situation at the last World Cup) and Portugal should provide the best opportunity for the Kiwi wingers to touch down repeatedly.
Brian Habana of South Africa has scored a greater percentage of his team's tries this year than either of those All Black wingers, scoring five of the Springboks' 40 five-pointers. Most interestingly, the man who famously raced a cheetah, didn't even play in the 15-try walkover against fellow African side Namibia in August.

South Africa have a fine record playing against teams with a world ranking figure of less than 80 and when looked at closer, Jake White's side average four tries per game against sides with a ranking similar to England's, and no less than 11 against sides ranked below 75 (like Samoa, Tonga and the USA) since the beginning of the last World Cup.

Habana is currently trading at 14 and as his career stats compare favourably with Rokocoko and Sivivatu at 22 tries from 28 caps, and he looks the best alternative.
For those who fancy trading players throughout the tournament, Schalke Burger has scored six tries this year including a hat-trick against Namibia. Back-rower Adriaan Richter managed to score four tries in the 1995 World Cup, also for the Springboks, and Burger could be a classic back-to-lay prospect.

Other players to consider are Latham (75), who as stated earlier, has previous form in the competition, and of course Lote Tuqiri (44) who has scored 27 tries from 53 appearances. Australia have the second best tries-per game average of the major nations since the start of 2005, and they probably have the second-easiest Pool.
France have the best tries-per-game average over the last 32 months out of the northern hemisphere countries, but they have a tricky Pool, with Argentina and Ireland lurking in the same section.