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Too many changes in Argentina's XV makes this too tricky a call

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Betfair's Rugby expert Tony Calvin tells you everything you need to know about the opening match

France have been the best backed side in Betfair's outright market in recent weeks - a far cry from the double-figure prices on offer ever since they were humiliated 47-3 at home by New Zealand last autumn - and those punters who are currently taking 7.8 about the hosts will be hoping for a big show against Argentina in the tournament- opener.

But the recent results between these two sides suggest that they may not get it.

Argentina have been France's bogey team in recent years. The Pumas won four consecutive meetings between the two from 2002-04, with winning margins of 1, 4, 1 and 10. And even when the French stopped the rot in the Stade De France back in November 2006, they only scraped home by a point (27-26) after a superb second half fightback by the away side.

So clearly there is nothing between the sides, as is evidenced by world rankings of three for France and five for Argentina, who have consistently proven their power and class against the top sides. Even New Zealand only beat them 25-19 in June 2006, and Argentina finished that match camped on the Kiwi line.

So why has Betfair set the line at France -9.5 - and indeed why are they only 1.69 to cover that handicap, and 1.19 in the match odds market? And if you fancy Argentina you can get them at evens +12 elsewhere.

France were undoubtedly impressive in their warm-up games, look to have strength in depth that only the Kiwis can boast, and obviously home advantage.

But I wouldn't get carried away, and that is what the handicappers possibly have done here, perhaps reading far too much into recent collateral form. Argentina were very disappointing in losing 27-20 to Wales, and a similar Welsh side was blown apart 34-7 by a rampant France in August.

However, it is fair to say that injuries have not been too kind to Argentina. They have lost a centre, winger and number 8 in recent weeks, and a further three of their starting line-up against the French have only recently recovered from knocks. That, and their formidable prop Omar Hasan is not even on the bench.

But it is the decision to play their star full-back Juan Martín Hernández at fly-half (not a move I would have made at this late stage) that will probably decide the game and no-one knows how he will shape up in that pivotal position. And their best goalkicker is on the bench.

So what many punters were earmarking as the potential handicap bet of the tournament - under-rated Argentina with over a converted try start - has now been watered down into a potential no-play match.

I wouldn't disagree with that, but you can get Argentina +12 at evens elsewhere and that is probably the most attractive betting option on the match.

For those who bet in running, Argentina certainly don't tend to fold when going behind early. But hard and fast rules about in-play match betting is a touch foolish; you have to have seen the early match evidence with your own eyes before making that kind of call.