Betfair Official Blog

Tiny Island Nation expects to take Super Power to the cleaners

Click here to view market

Chicken Dinner try to work out if the USA can avoid a mauling by Samoa...

Game 3 of this weird little two day mini-festival of minnow-on-minnow rugby, with some neighbourly friction just to jazz things up a little. The Americans have been landlords of eastern Samoa, better known as American Samoa, for decades now, using it as a convenient petrol station for their navy to gas up as they steam around the world. In Western Samoa, better known as just Samoa, they have no need of mid-ocean refuelling facilities. History lesson over, no amount of fancy weaponry is going to save the US from a beating in this one. While Samoa have had a dismal tournament and would be forgiven if their minds were concentrated more on getting the hell out of France, the 31.5 point handicap offered here suggests the westerners will stroll it, however gloomy their mood.

As for which side of the points handicap the result is going to fall, that's a much tougher call. Samoa and USA don't have much previous rugby history to go on. They've only ever faced each other twice ever, in 1999 and 2000, with Samoa winning by seven points on both occasions, registering 19-12 and 27-20 victories.

In Samoa's favour, since 2000 they have won every game they have played against sides ranked similarly to USA, and four of the six victories were by more than 31.5 points. They averaged a winning margin of 32.7 points in these games, with the largest victory being by 59 points when they beat Japan 68-9 in 2000 (you can get USA +31.5 on betfair at 1.19, Samoa -32.5 points at 2.74.).

Samoa has also won three of their four wins in the pool stages of the World Cup by more than 31.5 points, but against sides ranked below the USA (Uruguay, Georgia and Japan). The largest of these was a 47 point win over Uruguay in a 60-13 victory.

Since the last World Cup, however, Samoa has won just once away from home by more than 31.5 points, when they defeated Tonga 36-0 in July 2006 - the only time that they have managed to score more than 31.5 points in a game in this run.

Also in the Americans' favour - since the last World Cup, they have lost 13 of their 21 games on foreign soil, but just two by more than 31.5 points, against Ireland (55-6) and Canada (56-7). They have never been beaten by any of the Pacific Island sides by 31.5 points or more (although they have only played four games, two of them against Samoa.) The largest was a 23-point defeat against Tonga when they lost 29-6 back in 2000. And while the USA has lost eight out of their nine pool stage games in the history of the World Cup, just two of them were by more than 31.5 points, both in the 1999 competition when they lost by 45 points to Ireland and by 36 points to Australia.

So while the winner has already been decided, the margin depends on mood. Will the Americans find Samoa eager to work out some of their disappointment before leaving, or more interested in getting to the Duty Free as soon as possible?