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Tight match, few points

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The Racing Post's Geoffrey Riddle looks at the total points market for the Final

Geoffrey Riddle has used www.statsonsport .com for his analysis.

Here we are. We have all made it. Just two matches to go and the World Cup is over for another four years. A time for Australians and Kiwis to reflect on how and why, and perhaps a time in which they will have to get over the fact that South Africa may be World Champions.

England are the lowest scoring finalists of all time and they have got to this fixture by severely reducing the scoring options of the opposition, while relying on the boot of Jonny Wilkinson. It is their strategy and the primary reason why total points are odds-on under Betfair's 37.5 quote.
England's tactics were best seen in their two knockout matches against Australia and France where they dominated the breakdown and played the game with a defensive mindset.

They generated more mauls than the French, won more turnovers, put in a greater amount of tackles but crucially, made fewer errors. The approach obviously worked and last week they even managed to stop France crossing their tryline; a team that had scored three tries against them in as many games this year.

South Africa have scored more tries and points so far than the French though, and Jake White's Springboks will, quite rightly, be the biggest test for the 2003 champions.

Against Tri-Nations sides and France, England average 15.4 points per match since the start of 2004. That's not a lot, and if you take out the home games, that drops to just 11.1. It is a worrying problem for England coach Brian Ashton as the Springboks have only scored less than 11 points on two occasions since the last tournament and those instances were away to New Zealand and Australia.

In the games mentioned in the above paragraph, England leak almost 30 points a fixture, but that goes down to 22 when you just look at matches at this World Cup and at Twickenham. That figure reflects what Betfair are offering on Jake White's men and the 22.5 is currently trading at 1.95 under that figure.

England's points have been chalked up at 14.5 and it is no surprise that punters have made under those points 1.83, given all of the above. We also have to remember that this is a final; a cagey affair where generally, most teams' fear of failure outweighs their determination to go out and win the contest.

Not all finals have come under Betfair's total match points quote of 37.5 though. In the inaugural tournament, New Zealand beat Les Blues 29-9 and in 1987, tries were worth only four points. It was the same story in 1991 but England and Australia only managed a 12-6 scoreline in the Wallabies favour. New Zealand and South Africa failed to score one of the new five-pointers in 1995 when they finished extra-time 15-12, but Australia demolished France in 1999 35-12. It seems therefore that if the final is set to be close, points are generally in short supply.

If England continue to restrict the opposition, South Africa will life very tough at the coal face. England's game plan is limited, but very effective because they lack attacking options other than Wilkinson which means they make fewer errors. It also is an approach which limits both sides' points.

There seems very little margin for error in a fixture of this nature. Over the last four years, South Africa have been less effective at scoring points than Australia and yet the scoreline when England met their old nemesis in Marseille was 12-10. Although in general 37.5 looks on the low side, perhaps with the sort of rugby that England are playing now - a 1990's cup style - the only option is to follow the instructions of the Red Rose's song and 'Swing Low'.