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The record books tell us Australia are the side England want to be facing at this stage

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England's record against Australia in World Cups is good but what will happen this time? Chicken Dinner look for the answer.

England vs Australia, Rugby World Cup, Quarter Final, Saturday October 6, 2pm, Marseille
England +11.5 points

Current IRB world rankings, as of October 1: Australia 2, England 6.

So just as the pool games were starting to get interesting with Wales' capitulation to Fiji and Argentina pushing Ireland off their bike, back we go, with this first quarter final, to the one-sided mismatches that have characterised the World Cup so far. The odds on England repeating one of their famous Australia-silencing victories of previous tournaments are very, very long, (5.5 on betfair) although nowhere near as long as their successfully defending the trophy, an eye-watering 75.0 on Betfair.

Yet now that there's some knocking out to be done, England fans' selective memory is not entirely dissimilar from someone who's taken a clonk to the head. In the search for reasons to be cheerful, they've narrowed their field of reference to England's two most recent matches ("positive signs") and the 2003 final ("miracles can happen".) The games against Samoa and Tonga did offer encouragement that the team was finding some sort of stride, yet as Richard Williams cautioned in the Guardian on Monday "When a team starts from the kind of low base so embarrassingly exposed in their opening group matches against the United States and South Africa, improvement is the only possibility."

Historically, England's knockout stage form against Australia is better than anyone's - beat them in 2003 and 1995 (25-22 in the quarters), lost in 1991 (12-6 in the final) - and far better than New Zealand's, who have never beaten the Australians in post-pool World Cup play, in spite of outscoring them in the pool stage in every single tournament, including this one.

In World Cup quarter finals, Australia have played five, won four, and scored, since 1987, 33, 19, 22, 24 and 33 points. England have played five, won three, and scored far fewer points (3, 19, 25, 21 and 24). But historically, the lip-smacking with which Australia anticipates such a game is also at its most exaggerated, with Australian Rugby Union Chief Executive John O'Neill going first in the war of words; the word he chose for England was "hate".

Since the last World Cup, Australia have won four out of five against England, the last two being quite comfortable strolls in June 2006, 34-3 and 43-18. In two of those four games they scored six tries. England haven't scored more than three tries in a game against Australia since 1988, 19 games ago. In eleven of those games England scored either one try or none at all. Against Six Nations sides since the last World Cup, Australia have played 23, lost five and drawn one, their heaviest defeat being to Ireland 21-6 in 2006. England against Tri-Nations sides during the same period, England have played 15 and won three, none of them away from Twickenham.

As for the handicap, while Australia have only beaten England eight times in their last 15 meetings and only have covered an 11.5 point spread in five of them, they have done it comfortably in three of their last five games. England have lost nine of their last 15 games by more than 11.5 points, but only one of the six that England managed to hold to a narrower margin was a Tri-Nations side (South Africa 14-25, last year). So if Australia are going to win, they are likely to cover, if England are going to lose, they are not likely to cover. A pattern emerges...(You can get England +11.5 points on betfair at 2.08, Australia -11.5 points on betfair at 1.87.)