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The IRB have made a huge meal of Burger's offence

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Robert Elliott tells us about Schalk Burger's suspension and its effect on the Springbok's chances against England

Schalk Burger's four-match suspension does not come as any surprise to me. Don't get me wrong, I think that the four match suspension is shocking. However, I am not surprised that a shocking and unfair decision has been passed down to Schalk. It is not the first time and won't be the last. Sure, the match referees are trying to set a zero-tolerance precedent with the four match ban, but the problem is they have chosen the usual suspect and the wrong tackle to enforce it on.

Quite simply, Schalk jumped up to go for the ball and was a bit sloppy about his follow through. I agree that it should have been penalised, and I don't for a second think that dangerous tackles are an honest part of the game, but it is completely unfair to ban him for that many matches.

In the upcoming game against England on Friday evening, South Africa will drive the ball towards the corners and use their line-out superiority and huge forward pack to roll over the try line. Schalk is an important cog in this machine, both at lineout time and in the maul. He also carries the ball at the back of the pack and there is good value in betting on him as a try-scorer.

Aditionally, his ability to be just about everywhere on the field means that he sees a lot of action both on attack and defence, which makes him a likely candidate for break-away tries.
Wikus van Heerden is likely to replace Burger in the number 6 jersey, which South African coaches have traditional reserved for the openside fetcher. Wikus had a superb Super 14 and had a few good performances in the Tri-Nations, including a try against Australia in Sydney. Wikus gets through a lot of work in the rucks and mauls and is a real scrapper on the ground, but he lacks the coverage that Schalk offers out wide; the kind of cover that should have prevented Gavin Williams from gliding under the poles for 5 points in the Samoan game.
Schalk would have played a big role in containing Jonny Wilkinson on Friday evening. If the forwards can get the relevant shoulder forward on the defensive scrum then the openside flanker has direct access and responsibility to cover the immediate fly-half running and kicking options.

However, Johnny W (who has South African heritage) is not playing and the responsibility of the number 10 jersey has been handed to Andy Farrell, with Mike Catt (another South African) helping out in the clearance department. This rotten-bit-of-luck may play into South Africa's hands as Wikus will be very strong in this channel.

Sheer presence will also count in the clash between South Africa and England and while Wikus is a tad taller, he is also a few pints slighter than the 24yr old Incredible Sc-Hulk. The other option that Jake White may toy with is to play xaBob in the back row. xaBob offers a bit more pace than Wikus and even more flare and skill than Schalk with the ball in hand. I imagine he would attack at 8 and defend on the openside or on a right-left basis with Juan Smith.

The bottom line is that if Schalk Burger fashions a suit and not his green and gold kit on Friday evening, then South Africa's chances of beating a good English team are certainly diminished. Schalk is a hero and ,while not a Victorian, he is as valuable as George Smith is to Australia and Richie McCaw is to the Kiwis (which, by the way, is not slang). A team with Schalk playing is more likely to beat this English team and if the odds haven't adjusted or compensated with the news of his suspension then there is increased value on an English bet. It may be argued that Phil Vickery's suspension should level any betting adjustments, however, Vickery's absence, even as squad captain, should have less impact on the result.

Another important factor worth considering is the make-up of the crowd. There will be a significant number of English supporters in town, but the neutrals are sure to get behind the boys from Afrique du Sud. Don't underestimate the number and quality of the South Africans either; they are proud supporters of the brand who extend a defiant, colourful and vibrant spirit.
Jake White will instruct his troops to hold off a vicious 40min to 60min attack from the men in white. The Bokke will then be asked to apply serious pressure to the legs and stamina of both the English players and supporters as South Africa stride to a comfortable vital final quarter romp. If you are a betting man (or woman), as well you should be, then investigate the 8.4 currently offered on the England/South Africa (Half Time/Full Time) bet.

If you really want to make some cash on this game then look for the odds on a South African win on the 30min mark. England will probably still be serious contenders in the game at this point and novices will shift the money and odds around in favour of white. Even if England have their tails up at this point you should stick a few bob on the boys in green. I imagine that bets will be matched at around 1.6-.1.7 leading up to half-time.