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The All Blacks will be going at this Hayman and tong

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Betting expert Tony Calvin looks ahead to New Zealand's clash with Scotland this afternoon

WHOEVER framed Betfair's initial handicap of -27.5 points on this afternoon's World Cup clash between Scotland and New Zealand must have been either one of two things - an optimist, or Scottish. Or perhaps a Scottish optimist.

Because the industry line of the match is now not far off double that and New Zealand are currently trading at 2.08 on Betfair's revised line of -48.5, and at 1.18 to win by more 27 points.

To be fair to the person who came up with the first handicap, it had some degree of merit and logic. Scotland are playing at home, where they have beaten the likes of France and England in the past two years, and they have a habit of giving the All Blacks a decent run for their money - in fact, their losing Murrayfield margins have been "only" 19, 31 and 12 since 1999.

However, the revised line acknowledges the fact that Scotland have decided to field a much-changed side to the one that defeated Portugal (56-1) and Romania (42-0) in their opening matches, something that the Kiwis are apparently none too impressed by. They were hoping for a much-needed physical work-out before a likely quarter final against France, and the Scots could be on the end of a disgruntled backlash here.

To be fair, while Scotland have made changes, this is not a weak side. Yes, their fine back row - which includes their talisman and hard-hitting captain Jason White - has been rested, but eight of the XV that start today have 20 caps and more, and second row Scott Murray has 86 and Chris Patterson 78.

So it has experience and a fair few of the players would be vying for first XV status anyway.

But you have to worry about backing a side whose mindset screams defeat before they even go out on the pitch, and they could be lambs to the slaughter if the Kiwis get up a head of steam early doors, just as they did when racing to a an early 43-0 lead against a bewildered Italian side.

In stark contrast, the All Blacks have named pretty much their best XV for this game. And, if they really have taken exception to Scotland's perceived dismissal of this fixture as a competitive event, then it could be one long afternoon for the home side. A worrying sidenote is that New Zealand haven't been satisfied with their opening 76-14 and 108-13 victories, in which they have conceded three.

But 48.5 points is a lot to give away against a side with a decent home record, and the signs are that it could be a drizzly late afternoon in Edinburgh.

This is a match that has too many imponderables to make it a great betting heat, but an early trading interest on the Scots +48.5 could pay some dividends. Providing they are mentally focused on the task in hand.