Betfair Official Blog

Springboks can bring Tonga down to earth

Click here to view market

Betting experts Chicken Dinner look ahead as South Africa tackle Tonga

South Africa vs Tonga, Rugby World Cup, Saturday September 22, Pool A, Lens
Tonga + 46.5 points

Current IRB World rankings, as of September 7: South Africa 3, Tonga 12

Every sporting tournament needs a likable, supportable underdog, and Tonga tick all the boxes to be the neutral fan's favourite team. Shock result against supposedly better team? Check. Amusing dance before the start of matches? Check. Potential to send England crashing out of the tournament in an embarrassing fashion? Check.

Tonga were fancied to beat the USA, but that was where their World Cup was supposed to start and finish. Instead they not only spanked the Yanks 25-15, but then grabbed a surprise win over a Samoa side that only two months before had whipped them 50-3. Now they face a South African team resting 11 players from the game against England, although how coach White managed to find eleven players who'd overexerted themselves remains a mystery. (You can get Tonga +46.5 points on betfair at 1.81, South Africa -46.5 points on betfair at 2).

Tonga's two wins has seen them double their total number of World Cup victories to four. Allied to this change in form, only twice in the Tongans' 15 World Cup matches have they lost by a margin greater than the handicap. Though when Tonga get thrashed they really lay down and die, having lost 101-10 to England in 1999 and 91-7 to New Zealand in 2003. However, their other World Cup defeats have not seen them concede more than 45 points.

South Africa have prepared the hard way for this World Cup, their defeats this year coming to the only teams that are likely to knock them out of the tournament, Australia and New Zealand. Within this period they have twice won by margins great enough to trouble this handicap, against Samoa and England, the only reigning World Champions that it's not an honour to beat.

Having been unable to enter the first two World Cups (due to an unfortunate period in their political history that they no longer like to talk about), South Africa have since enjoyed an enviable record in the tournament, winning once and taking one third place finish. But for a side that has won the majority of their World Cup matches (16 wins in 19 games), they have rarely opened up and won by a huge score. On only three occasions have they won by a figure greater than 46.5 points, though one of these victories did come in the recent match against the Samoans.

Whether this victory and the 36-0 drubbing of England is indicative of a change of intent, is open to question. In past World Cups such minnows as Canada, Spain and Georgia have failed to be blown away by the South Africans, in the destructive style that Australia and New Zealand seem so easily capable of.

As with all World Cups, the true drama lies further down the road. If England can manage to come through their match with Samoa without further humiliating themselves, an unlikely showdown with Tonga beckons for a place in the quarter finals. And just how 'neutral' will the Irish, Welsh, Scottish and Australians be feeling then?