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So much to do for Argentina to emulate England

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Statistics suggest Pumas have the toughest of tasks to defeat South Africa, says Betfair rugby guru Tony Calvin

A lot of people were disappointed by Argentina's 19-13 defeat of Scotland last Sunday but, having backed them at 130 downwards in the outright market, I can assure you that is not the case from this quarter.

In truth, they did what I thought they would do, namely grind out an unimpressive win and fail to cover the 13.5 handicap start they were asked to concede on the main Betfair line.

But they were just a touch too complacent and lethargic and they could well have lost it in the final play of the match if a Scotland cross-kick had gone to hand.

But it didn't and they soldier on, so I was excited at the prospect of backing them with a 9.5 start against a South African side that have seemingly gone backwards since hammering England 36-0. Their performances against Tonga and Fiji last week could quite feasibly have ended in defeat.

After all, Argentina have invariably proved an attractive betting proposition getting a start against the best sides, simply because their pack can be all-consuming (though they have admittedly not scrummaged well in this tournament so far), possess two or three would class players behind the scrum and their defence is outstanding (they have only conceded three tries in this tournament).

I was just about to back them at evens +9.5, when I thought I better check the head-to-heads against the Springboks.

I am glad I did, because it immediately became a no bet match for me.

I was amazed to discover that South Africa have beaten Argentina in all of their 11 meetings since 1993 and have trounced the Pumas on their home patch in that period too.

Not many sides have done that, and Argentina only kept the winning margin in single figures in only three of those 11 matches.

That is quite some stat.

So while I believe and hope that the 2007 Pumas are a class apart from their predecessors, they are simply not a betting proposition against a side that seemingly have their number.