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Samoa to stand tall against Montgomery

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Betfair's Rugby expert Tony Calvin looks at why South Africa may find the Samoan power

WERE it not for three recent tournament-ending injuries to centre Anitelea Tuilagi, prop Donald Kerslake, and lock Filipo Levi - all first-teamers and key players in their own right - I would have little hesitation in naming Samoa getting up a 35 point start with some bookmakers as one of the best bets of the opening matches.

However, I still see plenty of merit in getting with the Samoans in this game and in fact I'm currently at the front of the queue at 1.6 trying to lay South Africa on Betfair's -28.5 handicap line.

I think they could just give the Springboks a very early wake-up call, and run them close.

Granted, 2007 performances have been a bit patchy and they recently lost a warm-up game 22-21 to Harlequins.

But they come alive at the big tournaments, as the likes of Wales (beaten in the 1991 and 1999 World Cups) and England (shaken to the core before winning 35-22 in 2003) will testify to.

And I have a sneaking suspicion this game will be no different. Their pack held up pretty well in a 35-8 loss to an admittedly largely second-string South Africa side at Ellis Park (where they were down to 13 men at one stage, with two men yellow-carded) and they have enough three-quarter talent and power to give any team a real scare. Alex Tuilagi is a bit of a beast on the wing, as Leicester's opponents found out last season.

Of course, many believe the massive Springbok juggernaut eight will deny them any ball and that is a concern, but I think that is more than factored in to the price and the handicap lines.

As a low-risk trade, I'll also be looking to a sizeable lay of South Africa at 1.02 (getting nibbled as we speak) or 1.03 in the match odds.

Underestimate these Samoans at your peril, as hopefully the Springboks are just about to discover. At least until half-time, when I green up, anyway.