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Samoa and the USA serve up a handicapper's delight

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Betfair's Tony Calvin gives his take on where to find the value as the minnows face-off at the Rugby World Cup

ONE of the handicap gambles of the World Cup is developing on USA as they take on a wounded Samoa this evening.

When one bookmaker raised his head above the parapet on Monday, he gave the Eagles a 27- point start but now one bookmaker is allowing you to back the Samoans giving away just 13.

Why? Because the bookmaker who went up first didn't do his homework and I reckon USA could actually win this match, for which they are currently around the 6.6 mark on Betfair and available at an ever-shortening 1.8 on Betfair's +16.5 line. The gamble may not end there.

Samoa came into this tournament with high hopes of a quarter-final berth, having assembled arguably the most talented squad in their history. They must be devastated after their wide-margin losses to South Africa (53-7) and England (44-22), but even more galling for them must have been their 19-15 defeat at the hands of fellow Pacific Islanders Tonga. Their pride must have taken a real knock there.

Samoan coach Michael Jones admits morale is low.

"We're very disappointed, and we're not trying to hide that disappointment either," he said.

"We're very disappointed for our Samoan people, all over the world but particularly in Samoa, we really wanted to do well for them."

Note that he said wanted, not want.

But even more worrying for him is that he has lost 10 or so players to injury during the tournament, notably influential forwards, flanker-cum-lock Daniel Leo (broken wrist) and number eight Henry Tuilagi (shoulder), from the England game, while Brian Lima has been cited out of the match.

They are clearly on their last legs, while the States come into this on the back two gallant performances and fresh as daisies.

They recovered well from a slow start, and a 13-0 deficit, to run Tonga close in their second match, losing 25-15 despite dominating territory and possession. And when they lost 28-10 to England in the first match, two of the three tries they conceded came when they had a man in the sin-bin.

There is little doubt that Samoa still field a side that are capable of winning this match, and winning it well.

But their mindset has to be questioned after such disappointments. And even if the mind is willing, their bodies may be weak just four days after the England match. The Eagles meanwhile, have had a fortnight break since their Tonga game and will be ready to swoop this evening.

Georgia and Namibia finally get to play their very own World Cup final tonight, and both have performed with real credit during the tournament so far, with Namibia's finest hour coming when only losing 32-17 to Ireland.

But Georgia's efforts have far exceeded theirs. Only a last-minute try saw Argentina get a bonus point against them in a 33-3 win, and they were incredibly unlucky not to beat Ireland, instead of losing 14-10 after basically dominating the match.

The tournament form lines and performances point to Georgia being the bet here at 1.94 on the -12.5 line, but there is clearly not a lot between the sides - hammered home by the fact that Georgia only won 26-18 when these sides met in June - so match looks a no punt affair for me.