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Richie can lead you to riches on the New Zealand handicap
Betting experts Chicken Dinner look ahead to the All Blacks' clash against Scotland
Scotland vs New Zealand, Rugby World Cup, Sunday September 23, Pool C, Murrayfield
Scotland +27.5 points
Current IRB world ranking, as of September 17: Scotland 10, New Zealand 1.
When sportsmen come up against the best in the world in their particular pursuit, they'll often switch to cliché autopilot: "We'll relish the test today. If you can't enjoy a moment a like this.... Yada yada yada". This tall-tailed nonsense is what we come to expect, but who do these people think they're kidding? Who really woke up and genuinely looked forward to meeting Mike Tyson at his peak? Or Michael Jordan? Or Brazil? This is the position that Scotland find themselves in, as they take on New Zealand. Yes, they have to stare into the camera and deliver the platitudes about not being scared of anyone, but behind the scenes they'll frantically trying to control the shakes and half-hoping for a miraculous pre-game groin strain.
The Scottish butterflies won't have been calmed any by the news that the All Blacks welcome back their captain Richie McCaw and fly-half Dan Carter. The good news for the Scots is that those sick notes can be hand delivered, as they boast home advantage, with the match taking place at Murrayfield. This may be the reason that Scotland haven't been handed the customary huge points lead in the handicap. (You can get Scotland +27.5 points at 3.65 at betfair, and New Zealand -27.5 points on betfair at 1.26).
New Zealand come into this match in fearsome form. In the last year they have beaten France (3 times), Wales, Canada, Italy and Portugal, by scores that would smash the 27.5 point handicap. They have lost just once in 11 and twice in the last 27 games.
New Zealand have won every World Cup group game they've ever played, breaking the 100 points barrier on 3 occasions. In 2003 they scored over 50 points in every group game and have continued this feat during this tournament. From a total of 33 World Cup matches played, New Zealand have won 13 times by a total greater than 27.5 points.
In contrast, Scotland's form is as patchy as their famous checkered fabric. In the last year they have only recorded wins over Ireland, Wales and small fry such as Romania, Portugal and the Pacific Islanders. Every time they step up in class they get knocked down again, though they haven't lost any match in this period by a score large enough to break this handicap, despite facing Australia and South Africa. Their World Cup history also shows a trend of buckling to the big boys, though never by a huge margin. From a total of 26 games, Scotland have only lost heavily once (to France 9-51 in 2003).
The two teams have faced each other four times at World Cup level, with New Zealand taking every match. They have never met in the group stages before, clashing three times in the quarters and once in the heady days when Scotland got to compete in 3rd/4th place play off games. Indeed, New Zealand boast near complete superiority, having won 23 out of a total of 25 meetings (with two drawn). The Scots may be brave, but perhaps on this occasion Scotland the Extremely Concerned would be a more appropriate nickname.
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