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No mercy from Percy

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Betting.betfair.com's favourite Saffer, Robert Elliott, tells us why England might as well not bother showing up

The Springboks delivered a clinical performance against Argentina on Sunday evening. The knock-out stages aren't always pretty affairs; however, South Africa defended bravely and took the opportunities available to them.

Earlier in the year Jake White categorically stated that defence would win the Rugby World Cup in 2007. "Too bloody right mate... too bloody right". Leading up to the semi-finals Argentina had only conceded 46 points and 3 tries in 5 games. While many analysts harped on about the indomitable Argentinean pack, they failed to identify the successful defensive efforts of Les Pumas. There is no doubt that the exceptional South American forwards setup a platform that allowed Pichot, Hernandez and Contepomi to control the games.

However, Argentina's ability to shut out theoffenses of France and Ireland primarily contributed to their most successful World Cup challenge to date. The most likely conclusion is that the two are hand-in-hand. It is far easier to defend against first and second phase ball when your opponents are getting a lesson in technique up front.

The Springboks, in comparison, had conceded more tries and points than the Argentineans leading up to the semi-finals. For the most part, however, South Africa have defended brilliantly in their matches, particularly when they smashed England 36-0.

The Springbok 'B' team struggled against an energetic and enthusiastic Tonga in Lens on the 22nd of September, which is largely due to pressure of putting a 'B' backline behind a 'B' forward pack and the lack of true substitutive depth on the bench for South Africa.

The second game in which South Africa failed to maintain their prowess on defence was against Fiji. Some unusually sloppy defence by Schalk Burger and the unpredictability of the Fijian attack was at the heart of South Africa's inability to stroll to an easy quarter-final victory over the brave islanders.

The early exit of Australia and New Zealand is an international crime in the world.....of rugby; but the only guilty parties are the gold and black brains and brawn on either side of the Tasman. Australia's defensive lines are superb, but their inability to compete in the rucks, mauls and scrum cost them dearly against a team who like to get their hands muddy. The All Blacks were stretched out wide with 14 men against France and were caught out on defence, an area they rarely rely on when pounding teams into submission through their explosive attack (why did New Zealand line up 2 defenders to the 4 French attackers in the 69 th minute of the quarter-final?).

I expect Wilko to bombard the back three in an attempt to get the ball behind the defensive lines. However, they will only find resilience in Percy Montgomery and aggressiveness in Habana and JP. Another option that England might try will be to kick the ball behind and out; something they did to great effect in 2003 when Johnson was in charge. But that's just it, isn't it? Victor Matfield owns the lineouts and even if he isn't receiving the ball each time, he is commanding the likes of Juan, Dannie and Bakkies.

The English will be hoping to catch Percy, dropping the ball ,just outside his 22 where they can setup a scrum and attack either side of their strong scrum. The Bokke will muscle the ball up through their forwards and setup opportunities for their back three to pounce. Keep an eye out for Jaque Fourie to pick up a try, he is an exceptional player and England may over compensate on defence covering Habana.

Defense and South Africa will win the world cup.

Key players:

England

Andy Sheridan : The English loose-head will be pivotal in securing domination over South Africa at the scrum. He is immensely strong and has been the stand out performer for the Roses.

Nick Easter : Easter has been used as a runner around the fringes. He is a big lad and gets through the rough and tumble with a smile on his face.
Johnny Wilkinson : First things first. Johnny MUST convert 90% of his kicks. While his right-to-left pass is still shocking, he will no doubt master the game for England from a tactical perspective.

Matthew Tait : The most talented of the English backline, also the most underperforming of them. He will need a big game on defence and South Africa should be careful of him when the tense defensive game breaks up a bit towards the last quarter of the game.

South Africa

John Smit : John will have the biggest responsibility on the day. If he keeps the Springboks positive and confident, South Africa can't lose.

CJ van der Linde : He is great with the ball in hand, but to be dead honest I only care that he holds his end against Sheridan. The game could be won and lost over this battle.

Fourie du Preez : Fourie looks after the backline and takes a lot of pressure of Butch and Percy of defensive kicking. With Jean taking a break back in SA, it is up to Fourie to make the big calls when deciding whether or not to attack, kick or run. He will be responsible for the possession statistics and for executing Jake and Eddie's game plan.

Percy Montgomery : Finally, the world of rugby can pay their respects to one of the game's all time legends. Why does he wear white boots and put highlights in his hair you may ask??? Because he can. The greatest full-back to ever play for South Africa and quite possibly the greatest player to don the green and gold jersey.... maybe rugby jersey period. He is the best place-kicker in the world and his ability to finish and release the likes of Habana often sneak under the radar. It suits South Africa's game plan to have attacking players in Butch and Steyn in at 10 and 12 respectively and the confidence, stability and tactical prowess of Percy Montgomery at 15.

South Africa are a steal at 1.48. The sub-prime crisis, which has successfully tackled the equity and property market in a single effort, has primed this bet as your lowest risk and highest return investment available today. But wait, that's not all. If you jump onto Betfair.com now you can pick up Monty in a Monty vs Johnny bet at 1.77... good as gold. If you are a real punter and you track the game, then look for a bet on South Africa at around the 30min mark again. I imagine England might still be in the game up until then (or Halftime/Fulltime on England/South Africa at 10).

Springboks. The Time Is Now!