Betfair Official Blog

New Zealand take on the clock, not Portugal

Click here to view market

Betfair's rugby expert Tony Calvin looks ahead to Portugal's mountainous task against the All Blacks

SATURDAY's match between New Zealand and Portugal has arguably been the most eagerly-awaited of the tournament.

Because everyone is intrigued to see if the Kiwis can trump Australia's 142-0 eclipse of Namibia in the last World Cup, or even post more points than the 145 they put on Japan in 1995 (though the Japanese did somehow find time to score 17 points of their own).

Handicaps have been flying around on this match for the past week or so, and I have seen them ranging from 113 to 122, thought the latter line has been pulled and changed to 119.

Betfair pitch two handicap lines between a converted score of each other at -110.5 and -115.5. And while that won't go down a storm with those who trade in-running - two markets so close to each other often dilute in-play trade - they are both hovering around the 1.9/2 mark.

So what is the play here? Quite frankly I don't know, though I do know a man who has backed NZ -113 and Portugal plus +122, and is hoping for a winning margin of between 114 and 121 points....

I suppose Australia showed in the last World Cup it is possible to cover these types of handicap and if New Zealand can put 76 points on Italy, then god knows what they could do to Portugal.

Yes, Portugal played with surprising spirit and adventure in only a 56-10 loss to Scotland, but they must be weakened by the fact that they have made nine changes to that side.

New Zealand have made wholesale changes too, but among the 11 players they are drafting in are Nick Evans, Joe Rokocoko, Aaron Mauger and Conrad Smith, so I wouldn't have thought a "weakened" side can be said of them here.

This game is basically New Zealand against the clock, not Portugal.

If the Kiwis really want that world record they could easily get it. If their discipline and attention levels hold, they will probably cover the -110.5 line with some ease.

But betting on a teams' mindset when they are asked to give away three figures on the handicap is not my idea of punting, though the in-running trade promises to be fascinating on Betfair.