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New Zealand are a big lay at their current price

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Betfair's Rugby expert Tony Calvin explains why New Zealand are poor value to back at the moment and why the competition is a trader's paradise

WILL the mystery - or should that be mythical? - multi-million pound Betfair backer of New Zealand return for a second, even larger, bite of the Kiwi cherry?

That is the question in the back of many punters' minds as they trade on the exchange's World Cup outright market, which has already seen well over £8m matched and which promises to eclipse the £35m traded volume of the 2005 Ashes fifth Test.

Yes, I predict this Rugby World Cup will be that huge - providing the All Blacks stick around until the final.

Our big-hitter is certainly hoping that they do, and a current Betfair price of 1.59 in the outright market and 1.29 to make the final illustrates the outstanding claims that New Zealand possess.

But three months ago, they were being backed as short as 1.38, that's about 4-11 in old money, for glory, quite an astonishing price about a side who have not lifted the World Cup since 1987 despite going into each of the four subsequent tournaments as clear favourites. Only to lose in three semis, and one final.

The fact that the All Blacks were being backed as short at 1.38 before the Tri-Nations - and check out the graph and traded volumes on Betfair (we supply this for every market and it is a useful tool for punters and traders alike), we are talking millions being traded at 1.5 downwards - led the Betfair forum to believe it was one man forcing the price down.

Probably because everyone else on the site claimed to be laying them, with not another backer in sight. It could well be true but I, or indeed no-one at Betfair, would be currently privy to the identities of the people backing the Blacks at that level.

Of course, the exchange knows who, when and where the bets are coming from. But it is a popular misconception that all accounts are actively monitored and that you can't bet on Betfair safe in the knowledge that you are doing so in absolute confidence and confidentiality. In fact, it is probably the most secure bookmaker in terms of security in the betting marketplace, and only in exceptional circumstances are accounts looked into and analysed.

But enough of the background, what about the front end? Will this mystery man reappear to get with the Kiwis at the current level?

I can't see it myself, because as a trading option they are probably still the worst value out there and they certainly didn't look invulnerable in the Tri-Nations. Likeliest winners? Of course, they are.

But Betfair punters always have one eye on the trade - "tip me a price, not a winner" is a common cry from exchange punters - and when you consider that the All Blacks will be playing either France, Ireland or Argentina in the quarters and maybe Australia in the semis, then I think it is fair to say the double of those two wins may well pay 1.6.

No, I can't have the Blacks at around the 1.6 level.

France were available at 16 on Betfair not so long so, but they are rightly into 9.4 after some highly impressive warm-up wins. And those on the Boks as high as 18 are clearly sitting on superb trades.

But the draw is the most crucial aspect of deciding which teams to back, so I must admit to having secured some prices in the 700 and 900s respectively about an improved Scotland and the strong-scrummaging Italy.

Only one will progress from their group with New Zealand, but that team will then be in the quarters and in the opposite half of the draw from the favourites. And then it is game on, and both sides are capable of springing a shock on their day as they have shown in the Six Nations and against Ireland recently.

And the current 120 about Argentina is not be sniffed at, either. Undoubtedly disappointing against Wales, but take a look at their recent record against France, and you will be having a tickle at those odds, "Group Of Death" or not.

So, that is the outright market. As for the individual games themselves, Betfair will be looking to have at least 18 markets on every match, with handicaps being added in-running should the favourites disappoint or excel early doors.

And liquidity should certainly not be a problem. In the 2003 Rugby World Cup, there were several matches that saw £3m+ traded in the match odds market alone and it will be fascinating to see how our punters in Australia and elsewhere around the globe - one in two of Betfair's new accounts are non UK-based - affect the markets.

So, unlike many traditional bookmakers prices, which are probably drafted with at least one eye on the bias of home punters, the Betfair price promises to be a more rounded view of the market.

And if you do see a relatively empty market on Betfair, then seize the opportunity.

In Paul Kealy's excellent "The Definitive Guide to Betting Exchanges", the rugby chapter highlights just how punters can take advantage of illiquid markets. Just simply price it up as you so wish, perhaps even to 130+ per cent, and you'd be amazed how many times you get matched on both sides.

And my best tip for trading for the tournament. Lay the side that are attacking, and have others punters' greed, over-reaction and ill-judgement on your side.

In this World Cup, defences will be stronger and more organized than ever before, even more so than the 1999 tournament. So the trick is to put up a price in running that you would be happy to lay, EVEN if the attacking side scores.

You will be pleasantly surprised how many times you get matched, and the defence holds firm. Then it is "green book" city, or at least a great trading position.

Best of luck, and remember that Betfair alone welcomes winners!!!