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Last-chance saloon for Canada and Japan to get something

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Betting experts Chicken Dinner take a look at the battle of the minnows as Japan clash with Canada

Canada vs Japan, Rugby World Cup, Tuesday September 25, Pool B, Bordeaux
Japan + 12.5 points

Current IRB world rankings, as of September 17: Canada 14, Japan 18

It's little fish time at the Rugby World Cup, four of them are guaranteed a win, as the next four games in the tournament are between the two weakest minnows in each - hey! - pool. No realistic quarter final dreams for these tiddlers, but there is still plenty to play for, including bragging rights, the satisfaction of walking off the field a winner and avoiding the frustration of finishing bottom of the table, and in World Cup final terms at least, bottom of the food chain.

This game has an extra edge in that Canada, four places higher in the rankings, currently lie beneath Japan in pool B, as although Japan has shipped 146 points in their three games so far - only Portugal has been leakier - they somehow managed to conjure up a bonus point in their game against Fiji. Canada will be eager to reassert the natural order, Japan will be determined to recapture their form against Fiji that saw them come close to winning.

This is Japan's last game in the tournament, and Canada's last chance of a win, as Australia will be having them for dinner next Saturday. However, while Japan's losing streak in the World Cup stretches back ten games to 1991, when they beat Zimbabwe for their only ever World Cup success, Canada have never left the tournament with a zero in the win column.

Canada have won six of their last ten meetings with Japan, including the last match between the two (15-10 in 2005), unusual in that it was in Japan. Eight of the last ten games between them have been won by the home team. Canada have a fractionally less flimsy claim to home advantage as they have been based in Bordeaux and field a few French speakers. If Japan play as they did in the second half against Fiji though, it won't be hard to swing local support behind them.

That last game between the two sides was also unusual for its low score. There has only been one game in the last ten between them, stretching back to 1996, when one team failed to get into double figures (Japan 37, Canada 7, June 2001). In nine of those last ten, they scored more than 40 points in total, in seven of them more than 50, in four of them more than 60 and in two of them more than 80. Since 1998, though, Canada has only once beaten Japan by more than 12.5 points in seven games between them (Canada 62, Japan 18, July 2000). (You can get Japan +12.5 points on betfair at 1.95, Canada -12.5 points on betfair at 1.54.)

In their World Cup victories, Canada have won by more than 12.5 points more often than not (four out of six, three of them since 1991), most recently against Tonga in 2003, 24-7. In their final game in the last two World Cups Japan lost by more than 12.5 points in both (36-29 against USA in 2003, 33-12 against Argentina in 1999). To further confuse an already puzzling picture, during this tournament, Japan did better against Fiji than Canada, although Canada did better against Wales than Japan, but the Fiji game is a good indicator of an improved Japan.

The Pacific Island teams generally expect to beat Japan quite easily, yet in the two games immediately before the tournament, Japan beat Tonga away (20-17) and held up defensively against Samoa, losing 13-3. So perhaps the key lies in how well Japan feel they know Canada - a big difference in their defeats to Wales (heavy) and Fiji (light) was that the Welsh were complete strangers.