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Jonny Be Good - England expects a big win over Tonga

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English Rugby fans might be nervous about the Pool A qualifier but Chicken Dinner reckon the value for punters is the +35.5pts market...

Current IRB world rankings, as of September 25, 2007: England 7, Tonga 12.

English sportsmen are rarely inclined to choose the easy path. The middle order collapse, the failed penalty shoot out, the McLaren F1 team's heroic efforts to ruin Lewis Hamilton's rookie season are all familiar bullet-through-foot scenarios. Now it's the turn of the rugby team - an organisation that has spent the best part of the last four years greasing its own pole - and a decider with Tonga, a tie very much in keeping with national representatives' eagerness to make life as complicated for themselves as possible.

And then even if England do prevail, the prize on offer is very much of the "Is that it?" variety; a quarter final rugby lesson from Australia. No wonder England have a hard time getting their act together when this is the reward for success. The Tongans, surprise conquerors of Samoa last week, will also have their dander up, thus ensuring an extremely competitive and bruising encounter. (You can get Tonga +38.5 points on betfair at 1.17, England -38.5 points on Betfair at 6,).

England stumble into this tie in the sort of mixed form that has been their trademark since the 2003 World Cup victory. They have only won one match this season by a score greater than the 38.5 handicap, the 62-5 friendly win over Wales. Their World Cup history also doesn't point to a huge win, with only five wins from 31 games making it over this handicap, but one of these victories was against Tonga. Back in 1999 England scored 13 tries to embarrass the Tongans 101-10, although with the match being played at Twickenham, they did enjoy home advantage.

Tonga have slowly improved since those days. Prior to this tournament they had won just two World Cup games, but have managed to double this tally, against expectations. A win over the USA came as no shock, but few thought Tonga would triumph over a Samoan side that had defeated them 50-3 as recently as June. This was followed by a far more creditable defeat against South Africa than England managed, losing narrowly 25-30.

Only two sides have beaten Tonga by a margin greater than 38.5 points in their total of 12 World Cup defeats from 16 games. Besides England in 1999, New Zealand notched a 91-7 win in 2003. Unlike most teams that have lost the majority of their World Cup games, Tonga do have a pedigree for try scoring. Only twice in their last 16 games, have Tonga not scored a try and they managed three in the last match against the South Africans.

The Springbok legend Percy Montgomery has predicted that Tonga's hard running style will cause the English problems, though knowing England they will be more than capable of causing the bulk of their problems on their own. Much will rest on the delicate shoulders of Wilkinson, who kicked well against Samoa and finds himself in the now unfamiliar position of being about to play in his second game in a row. Let's hope his fitness can be maintained, unlike that of a certain other Newcastle-based scorer carrying a nation's hopes.