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Ireland will need to rewrite the history books to cover the 52.5 point handicap

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Betting experts Chicken Dinner provide some food for thought as Ireland try to improve on their shambolic performance against Namibia

Ireland vs Georgia, Rugby World Cup, Saturday, September 15, Pool D, Bordeaux
Georgia + 52.5 points

Current IRB world rankings, as of September 10, 2007: Ireland 6, Georgia 17

After France managed to shoot themselves squarely in the knackers in their opening game on Friday, Ireland must have thought this was going to be their tournament, or at least their group. A gentle warm-up stroll against Namibia lay ahead, in which they confidently expected to gather points as easily as apples from the Magners' orchards. And they also reckoned they could have Argentina. But by Sunday evening, the Group of Death had turned into the Group of Comedy. After their anguished 32-17 win, "Ireland," laughed the Guardian newspaper, "looked a long way from tying their shoelaces successfully."

Georgia are a much better team than Namibia - they held Argentina to 6-3 well into the second half of their first game, which makes the 52.5 point handicap look like another of Pool D's little jokes. (You can get Georgia +52.5 points at 1.54 on Betfair, Ireland -52.5 points at 2.42 on betfair.)

This century, Ireland have won by 52.5 points four times, against the USA in 2000 (83-3) their biggest ever win, Japan (78-9 in 2000), Namibia 64-7 in the last World Cup and Italy in a friendly, also in 2003, by 61-6. But in their last 15 games Ireland's biggest margin of victory has been 44 points, in a 61-17 win against the Pacific Islanders. Since the last World Cup, Ireland have won precisely none of their 21 games away from home by a 52.5 point margin. The best they could manage was a 29-point win against the ever-accommodating Japan (47-18 in June 2005.)

On top of that, besides that 64-7 thrashing of Namibia in 2003, Ireland has never won by more than 52.5 points in a World Cup, even though they've had their chances after being matched on nine occasions with cannon fodder such as Japan (28-5), the USA (53-8) and Zimbabwe (55-11).

Georgia's activity hasn't exactly helped the guesswork - they've only played four games against Tri/Six Nation sides since 2000, and apart from their 84-6 thrashing by eventual winners England in the last World Cup (Ireland are not eventual winners of this event), they haven't lost by 52.5 points once. Their other defeats were by 46-19 to South Africa, 31-22 to Italy and 63-14 to Ireland in 2002. This defeat to England is the only time that they have lost by more 52.5 points since 2000 in all competitions, against all nations.
But if Ireland have managed to put their Namibian frustration behind them and had started fantasising about another festival of points, this should wake them right up. There have been 22 games in World Cup history that have finished with a winning margin of more than 52 points. Eighteen of them were won by New Zealand, Australia, England, France and South Africa. The remaining four were won by lower ranked teams against the worst team in the tournament that year - Scotland against Cote d'Ivoire in 1995, Canada against Namibia in 1999, and Ireland and Argentina against Namibia in 2003. Georgia are not the worst team in the tournament. Ireland's real chance of a 52.5 point victory lies in playing someone like...Namibia. Joke over.