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I wouldn't want to stake my mortgage on this one

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Betfair's rugby expert Tony Calvin looks ahead at a really tricky match to call as England take on the Springboks

THIS is one of those games where I half sense an upset. The only problem is that the other part of me also expects a 30+ points Springbok victory.

Certainly, the betting for this has moved dramatically since the start of the tournament. The initial line was -9, then the revised one went up last week at -11 and now the general line in the marketplace is 17 after the opening round of matches and the injuries to Jonny Wilkinson and Ollie Barkley.

So if you want to get with the Springboks, you clearly now have to pay a premium and I am not totally convinced they are worthy of support at around the even money mark on Betfair's -16.5 point line.

Man for man, on current form you couldn't name too many England players who would get in a combined XV between the sides. As it happens, you couldn't make an open and shut case for one, with the possible exception of Josh Lewsey for JP Pietersen on the right wing.

A 62-5 defeat of a second-string Welsh side at Twickenham in August aside, England have been pretty much devoid of any attacking inventiveness in 2007 and it begins to look even grimmer for England when you consider that the last three meetings between the sides have seen Springbok winning margins of 11 (at fortress Twickenham in November 2006), 48 and 33.

Admittedly, the latter two victories came against a very weak England touring side, but the gulf in terms of class, precision and skill levels is there for all to see among the World Cup squads.

So why do I half fancy an England upset, currently edging towards 8 on Betfair's match odds market?

Basically, their big pack and their defence.

If England really make this an arm wrestle and make this a very narrow and physical match, then they do have a chance. Keep it tight for 30 minutes, and then the South African doubts could just begin to creep in.

Luckily, for England, rugby games are normally won by a collective effort, rather than by individuals, and if the England pack can't raise their game for this - defeat here consigns them to the nightmare half of the draw at best, and group stage elimination at worst - then they will never do so.

It is just possible that England's eight can negate the Springboks at source, play possession and territorial rugby, and kick their points. They certainly won't win this game by adopting anything other than 10-man rugby.

The loss of Ollie Barkley is a massive loss (far more so than that of Jonny Wilkinson) in the kicking and attacking regard, as Andy Farrell will be under enough pressure as it is in the fly-half/inside centre positions, where hopefully his chronic lack of international pace will not be exposed too much.

I suppose Schalk Burger's ridiculous two match ban for an innocuous high tackle evens things out for the loss of Barkley, but the flanker's replacement Wikus Van Heerden is a proven world class athlete in his position. Farrell is not.

If the Springbok front five get on top, and then their loose trio secure enough open play possession, then it is game over and those backing England at 1.25 on the +30.5 handicap could well have lost their money.

Because a certain Bryan Habana and his fellow threequarters will rip England apart in open play.

As you may have guessed, I am sitting this one out, now that I am presented with a 16.5 handicap line.

Put a gun to my head and I'll take a low risk play and lay England +30.5 at 1.25. But, if you are an England fan, this is probably one just to watch.

From behind the sofa, admittedly.