Betfair Official Blog

Hook and Wales may not have it all their own way

Click here to view market

Betfair Rugby expert Tony Calvin on why Wales might find this closer than you'd think

WALES were genuine World Cup contenders not so long ago, but have lost a lot of their sparkle in 2007 and now find themselves going into the tournament as 140 chances on Betfair.

Yes, they only lost 29-23 in Australia in the summer and have notched up 27-18 and 27-20 wins over England respectively in the current calendar year. But the over-riding impression is one of a team struggling in many areas.

The most obvious is the lack of ball carriers and go-forward in the pack after the loss of Ryan Jones to injury - and second string team or not, they must have been devastated when England took them to the cleaners at Twickenham, winning 62-5 - and the three-quarter line is not dazzling and incisive as it should be with the personnel in the squad.

But they virtually have their best team out against Canada, and the -30.5 point handicap line - the Canucks are marginally preferred at 1.9 at the time of writing - suggests that the above really shouldn't be a concern in this match.

But I'm not so sure.

Canada were only beaten 61-26 by Wales at Cardiff in November 2006 (though only six of the Canadians starting XV line-up here) and have since gone on to acquit themselves with credit in the Churchill Cup in the summer.

The point has been made elsewhere but many of the Canadians are part-timers and they often excel in tournaments, where the team have time to train, get fitter, gel, and excel.

And they have a core of experienced players in their team, led by a pretty formidable second row pairing of Mike James and Luke Tait, and a backline prompted by the classy Morgan Williams.

This could be tighter than Wales would like and I'd be inclined to side with the Canadians on the handicap.