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History suggests things could get ugly for France

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Chicken Dinner tell us why all the stats suggest New Zealand are as good as through to the semis

New Zealand vs France, Rugby World Cup, Quarter Final, Cardiff
France + 13.5 points

Current IRB world rankings, as of October 1: New Zealand 1, France 5

Hard luck, France. You couldn't even make it to your own party. This was supposed to be your tournament yet here you are playing in Cardiff, against the best team in the world (for anyone who is new to this, that team is not Wales) and facing an ignominious end on a foreign field. New Zealand are not the kind of team likely to feel sorry for your predicament, indeed they love the smell of weakness and self-pity in their nostrils to remind them that it is dinner time.
To make things worse, they've got a point to prove because they haven't won the trophy since 1987, in spite of being consistently the best team in the world. To be honest, France, you might as well stay at home and watch the other games on the telly - New Zealand have never lost a quarter final. The closest anyone got was Scotland in 1999, who lost 30-18. Your only glimmer of hope is that you can repeat the 1999 semi-final, when you beat New Zealand 43-31, although just to remind you what sort of an achievement that was, this was not just "an upset on a colossal scale" as the Telegraph described it, but also "surely the most remarkable day the sport has known." No one had ever scored that many points against New Zealand, and only South Africa have since done better, by three. That's your mountain, go climb it.

To pile on a little more grief for the French, New Zealand are unbeaten against Six Nations sides since the last World Cup - played 19, won 19. New Zealand are unbeaten against France since November 2000, nine games ago, (although one of those was a draw.) In their most recent games together, warm-ups for this event, New Zealand strolled home 61-10 and 42-11, and the last time they met in a World Cup, to decide third place game in 2003, New Zealand won 40-13.

Perhaps France's greatest cause for optimism is that they were just as unfancied before their earth-shattering 1999 encounter. Then, they had won the wooden spoon in the Six Nations tournament, and had prepared for the World Cup by losing six games out of eight. This time their form has been better but they had never lost a World Cup pool game before now - which is why they are playing their quarter final in Wales and not Paris.

As for the handicap of 13.5 points (you can get France +13.5 points on betfair at 2.1, New Zealand -13.5 points on betfair at 1.86), New Zealand have covered in nine of their last 15 games against France, and 11 of their last 15 wins against France. In New Zealand's two World Cup wins over France, they have won by 20 and 27 points. New Zealand have only once failed to cover a 13.5 point handicap in a quarter final (against Scotland, 30-18 in 1999), and in their ten wins this year (from 11 games), they have only failed to cover once (in South Africa, 26-21). At least the French have one consolation - things couldn't look any worse.