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Japan aren't surrendering to Canada

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Betfair's rugby expert Tony Calvin previews today's clashes as Japan meet Canada and Romania lock horns with Portugal

JAPAN have probably been the team most unfortunate with injuries to key men both before and during the tournament, and their woes on that front continued after their latest 72-18 loss to Wales. And this at a time when the tank is beginning to run on empty for the lesser nations.

But there are still reasons for thinking that they can make the most of the 12.5 start they are afforded on Betfair's main handicap market against Canada today, and the 15 available elsewhere is an added bonus.

Firstly, Japan have played one of the most expansive and entertaining styles of rugby to date, and scored the try of the tournament in that loss to Wales. But allied to their free-flowing style, they have also shown some hard-headedness up front, with a surprisingly stable scrummage and some powerful close-quarter work from the forwards.

They gave Fiji a real run for their money in a 35-31 loss, too, where they finished the game camped in the opposition 22.

And their record (9-8 in their favour) against Canada also gives them plenty of hope. They lost their most recent match 15-10 at home, but just a year earlier they won 34-21.

Canada will be hoping that the Japanese injuries and absentees finally begin to take their toll, and they will come into this match as the fresher side anyway, having played only two games to Japan's three.

They led 17-9 in the second half against Wales before losing 42-17, and after that promising performance I thought they were good things to beat Fiji in their next match, so there is no disguising that a 29-16 loss was disappointing. In particular, their defence in the first half left a lot to be desired.

But a 13-point winning margin grossly flatters Fiji. Canada had a perfectly good try disallowed late on and they were still only six points down when converging on the Fiji line during the last play of the match, only for the ball to squirt out and Fiji run the length of the field to score a try and signal the end of the match.

Japan may tire late on here, so I would suggest backing them at 5.6 on the outright match odds and around the even money mark +12.5, with a view to trading out if and when they start well.

The Romania-Portugal is trickier, with the Betfair line set at -19.5.

Portugal have been the surprise package in the tournament, showing a flair and tenacity that belied their pre-tournament results and expectations. Ok, on the face of it a 56-10 loss to Scotland and a 108-13 defeat against the All Blacks were hardly the stuff of defiance, but they showed pace and a willingness to attack that saw them score tries in both games.

And they gained their best result of the tournament in a 31-5 loss to Italy last time.

But injuries and fatigue are beginning to kick in now, and this could be one game too far them.

Like Japan, they come into this match having played one more game than their opposition and Romania having had a day longer rest, too.

Romania are no great shakes and possess a very limited gameplan, but they showed in a 24-18 loss to Italy that they have the pack to potentially take apart Portugal.

Their subsequent 42-0 defeat against Scotland was very worrying though, and may put people off backing them to even score 20 points, let alone cover the -19.5 line.

In truth, a match to bet on in minimal stakes, if at all.