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Get on Italy early doors to defend their 40.5 point start against NZ

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Betfair Rugby expert Tony Calvin on why the All Blacks won't have it all their own way against the plucky Italians

TOURNAMENT favourites New Zealand, who hit a 2007-high of 1.69 in Betfair's outright market on Thursday, get the first chance to strut their stuff in Marseilles on Saturday afternoon and a revised Betfair line of -40.5 (the original handicap was 33.5) suggests the Italians are lambs to the slaughter.

Think again. These beefed-up Italians have the ability to give the Kiwis a searching examination, for 60 minutes at least.

At the time of writing just shy of £600,000 has been matched on New Zealand at 1.01 in the match odds market, and there is still plenty available of the minimum price to lay.

This, to me as an in-running trader, is a great opportunity for a lay. Yes, we all know the Kiwis will almost certainly win the match.

But trading is all about risk to reward, potential and opportunity, and those money-buyers getting with the Kiwis at 1.01 have no get-out clause should the Italians go into an early lead or stay within touching distance in the first half. I can quite easily see this happening and, if it does, I would look to be buying back my lay at around the 1.05/1.06 mark.

And if New Zealand do run away with it from the start, so what? We have effectively backed a 100-1 loser. Big deal.

Let's look at the facts. It is true that New Zealand's last three games against today's opposition have seen them cover the -40.5 handicap with winning margins of 54, 62 and 49.

But their last match was in 2004, and this Italian side is a lot better now then it was then. In fact, in prop Martin Castrogiovanni, lock Marco Bortolami and number eight Sergio Parisse, they possess three players that would probably walk straight into in a Northern Hemisphere best XV.

And that pretty much sums up the strength of the Italians. Forward might, with not a lot behind.

But they showed when only losing 23-20 to Ireland in Ravenhill last month - to a disgraceful last minute video ref try decision against them - that they are probably a more rounded team than we give them credit for.

We all know what the All Blacks bring to the party, and they are quite capable of gatecrashing any gathering if they so wish.

They literally have world class back-up in any position and I dare say that there is little between their best XV and the second string side in practice match-ups. And if New Zealand dominate possession in this match, then they will cover the handicap such is their threequarter firepower.

But while Italy shouldn't expect much mileage out of a New Zealand scrum that is anchored by formidable Carl Hayman, they can hold their own there - they decimated the Ireland scrum - and it is the line-out where the Italians can frustrate the Kiwis.

The All Blacks line-out has been their one weak spot of late and in Bortolami, Dellape and Parisse, Italy have the ability to steal ball and compete in this area.

Yes, Italy will be taken to the cleaners if the match is too loose. France (39-3) and Italy (51-24) showed that in the Six Nations and the big danger for handicap backers is that the Italians, with one eye on future engagements, may take their foot off the peddle once the match is lost.

But, starting the match, there is surely only one way to play this. Get with Italy +40.5 and lay New Zealand at 1.01 in the match odds; I have and I'll be looking to trade out - hopefully for a profit! - around the 30-40 minute mark.