Betfair Official Blog

George Smith waiting in the wings to put the boot into...England

Click here to view market

Experienced sports writer Alister Morgan looks at why this is going to be a World Cup to forget for Brian Ashton's men

After guiding England to World Cup success in 2003 Sir Clive Woodward flirted with the idea of football management. Four years on, the state of England rugby has disintegrated to the point that he might prefer an attempt to turn around Steve McClaren's faltering qualifying campaign rather than re-take the helm in France.

England are (2.5) to reach the rugby World Cup semi finals. These seem generous odds for defending World Champions especially when you look at some of the big names in the squad. Dallaglio, Lewsey, Robinson, Vickery and Cueto are all top players with experience at International level. Factor in the return of all-action-hero Wilkinson and you might just get the feeling that England will mount a fierce defence of their title.

When England are racking up the tries against the US this Sunday and "Land of Hope and Glory" can be heard over the fields of France many will be tempted to back them at (2.5) for a semi final spot. But before you start reaching into your wallet while quoting from Henry V take a moment to consider this. When England do beat the US it will only be their second victory in 17 games away from fortress Twickenham.

I concede that Brian Ashton has reinvigorated England in certain areas despite last months 22-9 defeat to France. The forwards are fast becoming England's main point of attack once more and we all know a strong England pack invariably translates into
points from Wilkinson's left boot.

Ironically, Ashton has a well-earned reputation for exciting back play and with a first choice back line that could read Cueto, Sackey, Hipkiss, Lewsey, Robinson, Perry and Wilkinson he certainly has plenty of talent but little cohesive back play of late.

There are also young players poised to make an impact in an England shirt and I personally expect Tom Rees to shine at open-side flanker but England's World Cup hopes rest on too many 'ifs' and 'buts' concerning the fitness and form of key players.

England implemented plans to defend their title started four years ago but like a rogue tom-tom Andy Robinson steered England into dead end (finishing fourth below Italy in the '06 Six Nations) and now they're not exactly lost in France but remain too far behind the teams that count.

The draw hasn't been kind to England with South Africa looming large on September 14th but the Irish (who've shown better form than England of late) have a much harder cross to bear in Group D with the All Blacks a bitter-sweet reward for clambering out in second place from a group that includes Argentina and hosts France.

South Africa can still taste blood after scoring 55 points against England in May and with genuine strength in every position (more visible in Super-14 matches than experimental Tri-Nations results) look capable of inflicting too much damage on England.

Better defences than England's will struggle to contain the talents of Percy Montgomery and Bryan Habana which suggests a quarter final showdown with the one team guaranteed to kick England when they're down - Australia. Can England win that quarter final match? Expect George Smith to lead a master class in Pom-bashing and end England's campaign.

It's strange that England's success in a tournament, scheduled to end on October 20th, rests on a game against South Africa on September 14th. With a strong front five and a fit Wilkinson, beating South Africa is not beyond England but when the strains of Jerusalem give way to sober contemplation I'd recommend laying the champions at (2.5) for a semi final place before searching for the World Cup holy grail... a pub with large plasmas and no South Africans or Australians.