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France v Namibia: can the minnows contain a desperate host nation?

Betting experts Chicken Dinner assess whether Namibia can be good value in the +63.5 handicap market

Current IRB rankings, as of September 10, 2007: France 4, Namibia 24

This is the chance for France to let some of their uniquely Gallic character come to the fore, and trample Namibia like a vat of chardonnay grapes. It is also an opportunity for Namibia to do what they have traditionally done best in rugby World Cups - concede points. Yet without warning, Namibia deviated from the script in their opening game, when if anyone it was Ireland who played the part of a tub of soft fruit. A repeat of such sporting disobedience could spark an outbreak of exaggeratedly downturned mouths in France, for as hosts this is more than rugby. New president Nicolas Sarkozy has cozied up hard to the national quinze and won't be the only one worrying about the fastest way to discreetly scuttle away, should there be no glory to share in.

The bereted masses taking their seats in Toulouse, though, should be aware that France are not a team that generally likes to take the scoreboard for a long run. The handicap of 63.5 points available here (you can get Namibia + 63.5 on betfair at 1.66, France -63.5 on betfair at 2.24), is not a margin that crops up too often in French record books. The last time they even scored 63.5 points was six years ago, against Fiji, when they won 77-10. Prior to that there are only four other occasions in which they scored more than 63.5 points, and only ONE other time when they won by a margin of more than 63.5 points - against Brazil, 99-7 in 1974.

Namibia also might have other ideas about what they are willing to let France do to them this time round. For although the DVD of Namibian World Cup highlights is best rented with a couple of long films for a satisfying evening in front of the television, it may come as a surprise to know that Namibia haven't spent the intervening period between World Cups dreaming up new ways to ship even more points. Quite the opposite - they go and trounce other African teams and improve. In their previous two World Cups they conceded 67 points in each opening game. This time they kept it down to 32 points, and against an Ireland who are far higher in the rankings than their previous tormentors, Argentina and Fiji.

So the pressure on France is tremendous. It is their national duty to show that they are a contender, not least because by putting the lipstick on England, South Africa maintained the tournament record of only the big three teams being capable of busting the handicap. Saturday's scores notwithstanding, this handicap is asking France to put up the second biggest margin of victory in this World Cup so far, after Australia's 91-3 win over Japan, just when it seems most minnows have decided to toughen up a bit.

France's best winning margin in each World Cup so far has been, in ascending order, for maximum drama - 27 points, against Romania in 1991; 34 points against Namibia in 1999; 36 points against Cote d'Ivoire in 1995; 53 points against Fiji in 2003 and 58 points against Zimbabwe in 1987. That 58-point win against Zimbabwe, France's biggest ever in this tournament, is only (barring a bigger result by someone else on Saturday) the 19th biggest margin of victory in World Cup history. Nineteenth in French is dix-neuvieme.