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France go back to the drawing board but covering the handicap is another matter

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Betfair's rugby expert Tony Calvin previews Sunday's matches

FRANCE hope to get their World Cup bid back on track against Namibia on Sunday, and they could be forgiven for feeling a touch apprehensive after their inept performance against Argentina and then seeing their weekend rivals excel in a 32-17 defeat against Ireland.

But handicaps in the late 50s and early 60s suggests they should not worry unduly.

The Namibians went toe to toe with the Irish pack and were not found wanting in the opening match, and their threequarters have certainly got a bit of bulk about them, too, if not true international pace.

But they are expecting a more physical approach from the French today, and they are likely to get it, as France will no doubt come out with all guns blazing here, especially after an angry management has made 12 changes to the starting line-up.

Sebastian Chabal starts at lock and I think that indicates that the host nation will look to soften up the Namibians before ripping into them out wide.

Given the relative merits of their opening performances, it is easy to forget France's sensational pre-tournament form, or the fact that Namibia shipped 100+ points against South Africa in the summer.

But the handicaps and prices available suggest bookmakers and Betfair punters haven't just yet.

No bet for me here, and the same is pretty much true of the Samoa-Tonga match, which is currently trading as each of two on Betfair's -16.5 line.

Samoa, 1.15 in the match odds, were emphatically not a 52 point worse side than South Africa in the opening match (they lost 59-7). In fact, the match could well have unfolded rather differently had the referee not disallowed a Samoan try at the start of the second half which, if converted, would have pulled them back to within seven points of the Springboks.

And Tonga made a very bright start indeed when taking their chances in a 25-15 defeat of USA in midweek.

One thing for certain is that sparks and the odd punch will fly in this Pacific Island clash, but recent meetings suggests that Samoa should possibly be backed to cover the -16.5 line.

They beat Tonga 50-3 in a six try tour and have beaten them by margins of 47, 10, 36, 18, 9, 11 and 2 in their last seven meetings.

Put a gun to my head and I'd take Samoa to cover, but it would have to be loaded....