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Fijian indiscpline can cause their 21.5 point handicap backers dearly

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Betfair rugby expert Tony Calvin tells us why this match is so close to call but why Japan may be the value on the handicap

Whenever you get a game full of uncertainties, and this Fiji-Japan game is loaded with them, the percentage call is to take the points.

So the bet in this match is the evens available elsewhere giving the Japanese a 25 point (though I can't see that lasting), and it is pretty much evens of two on Betfair's -21.5 line.

I can see some mileage in taking a more extreme view though, and I think laying the Fijians at 1.36 on the -12.5 line has some merit.

Fiji is one of the most naturally gifted rugby nations along with Samoa - which is why Australia and New Zealand often come a calling there at an early age - but discipline is not one of their strong suits. And that was amply illustrated when their star performer, Rupeni Caucaunibuca, tested positive for cannabis in March and tales of drunken behaviour are not uncommon in the squad.

So the man with the best nickname in sport - Fijian coach and former Wallaby Ile "The Human Skewer" Tabua - has his work cut out.

But, with their rugby heads on, Fiji are a side to be respected and feared. They drew 14-14 in their most recent outing, against Australia A in June, but before that lost at home 21-15 to Tonga.

We do have a recent formline to go on here, with Fiji beating Japan 30-15 at Churchill Park back in May, but the sides that line up here are much different.

Certainly, the Japanese line-up is. In fact, they have made 15 changes to the side that were beaten, though not humbled, 91-3 by Australia on Saturday.

That scoreline does not tell the whole story as they were excellent in a first half that saw them only go in 23-3 down.

Japan clearly have had plenty of injury problems (in fact the list is pretty horrendous) but their captain Takuro Miuchi returns to the side today and they are fancied to make the most of the 20+ handicap.

And if Fiji have an off day, and their discipline disintegrates, then a shock win, currently been matched at 13 on Betfair, isn't totally out of the question.