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Farrell injury a blessing in disguise but that alone won't save England

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Betfair's rugby expert Tony Calvin looks ahead to Saturday's two quarter-finals

WHEN I heard the news that England had suffered a major injury blow ahead of their World Cup quarter final, I feared for them.

Because if Andy Sheridan or Jonny Wilkinson was that man, then they really had no chance, especially with replacement fly-half Olly Barkley also suffering from a knock in training.

But when it was revealed that the injured player in question was Andy Farrell, I think it actually enhanced England's chances of a shock victory, for which they are priced up at 5.6 on Betfair.

Yes, he is a big man with a big boot, and he would have physically shored up an England midfield that was porous against the strong-running Samoans and Tongans.

But the inclusion of Farrell would have robbed England of so much more, namely the most important attribute in world rugby - pace.

I bet Matt Giteau and Stirling Mortlock were licking their lips at exposing this area of Farrell's game.

But it looks like that they will have to deal with Mike Catt instead, and at least he will be bring a bit of dynamism to the party, which is not something that could be said about England's pack.

Brian Ashton has picked probably the bulkiest and slowest eight in England's history, and is clearly hoping that his forwards can do a number on the Aussie pack, just as they (well, Sheridan) did at Twickenham in 2005.

They could well do so in the scrummage (though Phil Vickery's return in place of Matt Stevens is not justified) but that is a big gamble to take, with the refereeing in this tournament as it is. But if they don't dominate at scrum-time, then England are in a world of trouble.

I can't see the England line-out getting much change out of the Sharpe-Vickerman axis at lock, and England's back row certainly hasn't been selected for pace and speed to the breakdown. So George Smith will have a field day.

With 50 per cent of possession, the Aussies, 1.24 chances, will win. With more than that, the likes of Giteau, Mortlock, Tuqiri and Latham - they even have the luxury of benching the tournament's leading tryscorer, Drew Mitchell - will ensure it is a rout, very much in the manner of South Africa's 36-0 defeat of England.

If England go behind early, then I can't see them coming back.

The same applies to New Zealand against France.

It makes a mockery of hosting the tournament that France are playing this quarter final in Cardiff, which clearly makes their task of beating the All Blacks that much harder.
So I can also see the Kiwis winning this by 20+, too.

France have bounced back well from the opening night defeat to Argentina and have no shortage of individual match-winners, but this game will be much removed from defeats of Ireland, Namibia and Georgia. And they have taken a big chance by picking Damien Traille out of position at full-back. And by selecting Lionel Beauxis at fly-half, they have signaled their intent to play a kicking game.

One thing is for sure; if Beauxis kicks badly, the devastating open field runners Siviveni Sivivatu and Joe Rokocoko will punish him severely.

New Zealand haven't really caught fire in this tournament as of yet, but you sense it is just a matter of time. And they tend to excel against the French.

Yes, everyone remembers that 1999 quarter-final at Twickenham, but I sense that France may just have lost this match before going on the pitch.

The reason? Not the last three victories for New Zealand over France, which were conclusive enough, but the 47-3 drubbing the Kiwis handed out in the Stade de Gerland last November.

That must have left a psychological scar, so dominant were New Zealand in every facet of the game. Especially the scrummage, an area at which the French set so much importance.

If Carl Hayman and his pack assert early, then I think France could fold, just as they did that night 11 months ago.

It may be an overly-pessimistic assessment for the hopes of the hosts, but I think a 30+ point New Zealand win is far more likely than any French victory.