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Fancy seeing you here! England-France semi was the real World Cup long-shot

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...but now they're there, which of the old rivals can profit to reach the final? Betting experts Chicken Dinner have the info

England vs France, Rugby World Cup semi-final, Saturday October 13, 8pm, Paris
England +8.5 points

Current IRB world rankings, as of October 8: France 2, England 6

As extraordinary coincidences go, England meeting France in this semi-final is like bumping into your neighbour on the moon. The price on either of them surviving last week was long, for both you could have got retirement odds. Besides the satisfaction of watching the Australians and the All Blacks whine and complain their way back to their hemisphere the reward for one of these two heroic teams will also be elimination. Harsh!

France are obviously favourites, they are the better team, they beat a better team in the quarters and they are back at home. Not since 1987, when Australia went out to France in the semis, has the host failed to win their semi-final (only Wales failed as hosts to make it to the semi-final stage.) For fans of patterns, they also have a win-lose-win-lose history in World Cup semis, and they lost the last one against England, so not only are they due, they have a score to settle as well. And how could a team who has just emasculated the New Zealand monster not have a spring in its step?

England have a bit more life about them than they did three weeks ago as well, of course. But while they could be forgiven a sigh of relief at finally remembering how to play together for the first time in four years, fans should not expect a new, chilled, 'Californian' England. "If we were grumpy and horrible last week and won I want us to be grumpy and horrible this week as well," said forwards coach John Wells.

England will be looking to break their own win-lose-win pattern in World Cup semis (according to which they are due a defeat), and while they have never lost to a European team at the semi stage, neither have they ever scored a try against a European side. Their 24-7 win against France at this stage in 2003 came from five penalties and three drop goals. So not a good time to be reliant on a ball that kicks like a balloon.

As for their respective records, England's dismal pre-tournament form has been rendered largely irrelevant by their extraordinary performance against Australia, although they have lost four of their last five meetings with France, and five of the last five that have been played in France (although they did beat the French in the 1991 World Cup quarter final in France.) Indeed, in 25 home games since the last World Cup, France have lost just six times, and only one of them was to a team ranked below England (Wales, 18-24 in 2005).

As regards the 8.5 point handicap, England have been turfed out of the World Cup three times out of four by more than 8.5 points, and six of England's last seven defeats have been by more than 8.5 points, including one against France. However, prior to that defeat (22-9 in August), France had only beaten England by more than 8.5 points twice since 1986. Traditionally, when France beat England it has been by a slender margin.

But tradition has little to do with this game - the last time England beat Australia they went into a four-year period of deep and chaotic introspection. The last time France beat New Zealand they followed it up with a hugely disappointing Six Nations, and possibly for the first time in World Cup semi-final history, being favourite doesn't stand for very much. (You can currently get England +8.5 points at 1.9 on Betfair, France -8.5 points at 2.08 on Betfair.)