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England v Tonga

Brian Ashton would bite your hand off for a one-point victory

Tony Calvin previews England v Tonga

The last time these teams met England won 101-10 at the 1999 Rugby World Cup; eight years later and Brian Ashton would bite your hand off for a one-point victory.

And that is the kind of winning margin we could be looking at here, so when you see Tonga with a 23.5 start on Betfair and 20+ handicaps elsewhere, there is really only bet to have here.

There are some people who believe that every thing in the England garden is all rosy after their 44-22 over Samoa, but I am not so sure.

Yes, it was clearly a much-improved performance. But that result was always to be expected against a side that was tailor-made for England to excel against, namely a side that they could strangle up front and dominate in the set-piece.

And don't get carried away with the 22-point winning margin there. If Samoa had scored when only 26-22 down and pressuring the England line, then it could have been a very different result, and a last-minute Paul Sackey try put a shine on the performance that was still limited.

Of course, it was better than the dross they served up against USA (28-10) and the 36-0 drubbing by South Africa, but that is not saying a lot.

England has proved they have one of the more powerful scrummages in the competition and a front five that can grind away. And Jonny was back slotting his goals, and drop-kicking away.

However, that can't disguise the fact that the back row again looked ponderous (Lewis Moody at seven will at least inject more pace than Joe Worley tonight) and there was precious little fluidity from the three-quarter line.

This gamelan was enough against Samoa, but the signs from this World Cup are that Tonga present a far greater all round threat - they scrummage far better, for one - so handicap in the 20s are mystifying.

Let's look at the facts. England's winning margin against USA was 18, Tonga's 10; England beat Samoa by 22, Tonga 4; and England lost by 36 to South Africa but Tonga just 5.

That doesn't read to me like a game that justifies a handicap anywhere near 20 points.

For a side that lost 50-3 to Samoa in a warm-up game in the summer, Tonga has been a revelation and in captain and open side flanker Nile Latu they probably have the star performer of the tournament so far.

In fact, their whole back row will give England all the trouble they want - more so after the return from Hale T Pole from suspension - and the Tonga scrum has so far stood up very well.