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England are in disarray and only one man can save them

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The Racing Post's Geoffrey Riddle tells us why England's life with Jonny in the team is so much rosier

First and foremost we have to get a sense of perspective here. England are in the quarter-finals against Australia; a stage of the tournament which Six Nations rivals Ireland, Italy and Wales have failed to reach. The last eight was the minimum requirement for England fans, and their team finally have a shot at glory against the Wallabies in Marseille on Saturday. Betfair offer a head start of 11.5 and 25.5 points for the underdogs.

Most people are aware of how dangerous collateral form lines can be - especially racing enthusiasts - but by comparing England's Pool-stage fixtures with tournament second-favourites South Africa, we get a fair idea of where Brian Ashton's squad currently stand.
If we look at England's successes over Pacific Island nations Samoa and Tonga, it is easy to assume that the Red Rose is blooming. They scored tries, bonus points were accumulated and if you look at Tonga's narrow 30-25 loss to South Africa, Ashton's squad looks more than capable of accounting for Jake White's second team. We all know what happened when they came across the Springboks' first team though.

The common link between the two games against the Islanders is a certain Jonny Wilkinson. Quite simply, England are a different outfit with their talismanic fly-half wearing the national jersey. That is easy to say, but I can put meat on the bones, too.

Since Jonny began his career back in 1998, the national side has won 78.6 per cent of their fixtures when the stellar No.10 has been on the pitch - without him, just 49 per cent. Now you can look at those stats and simply say that he was playing for a better team for the most part, but if you look at the period post 2003, it still holds true.

When Wilkinson has played for the World Champions, they are, on average, around four points better off a match. That may not sound a lot, but I'm sure former coach Andy Robinson would have wished for at least a four-point head-start in the 2005 Six Nations when his team went down 18-17 to France and 11-9 to Wales.

That head-start would also have come in handy when they lost 23-19 at Twickenham to New Zealand in the same year, or at the same venue to Ireland by the same margin in the following Six Nations. Perhaps the re-emergence of Wilkinson is one of the reasons why England are currently trading at 3.8 to win the 2008 Six Nations behind 1.89 France. That, and the demise of Eddie O'Sullivan's side and Wales's meek World Cup exit, certainly.

England's narrow losses, and some at HQ to boot, have led the side to take the field with an inferiority complex during recent seasons. Experienced campaigners such as Josh Lewsey, Phil Vickery, Martin Corry, and perhaps even Wilkinson himself, have gone into contests with defeat a consideration, if not an expectation.

It's a fine line to tread, but having confidence in the players around you, the coaching staff, hell, even your surroundings, is crucial to any rugby team. England never lost fixture when they trained at the plush environs of Pennyhill Park. When the RFU pulled tight the purse strings, it was no wonder Sir Clive Woodward left and the team imploded without Wilkinson.
Where does this leave England now? If you look at their record away from Twickenham since the last World Cup, they have failed to beat any team currently ranked in the world's top five.

Although they racked up the points against Samoa and Tonga, you've got to take into account that they were the first team to lose to nil at the World Cup. Don't forget France also kept them tryless for 160 minutes in August. Even when you look at their record at home, they have still lost more than they have won against such teams. As a result, the Aussies price of 1.23 to win the match may appeal to some, perhaps laying England to score over 1.5 tries may appeal to others.

That said, the Wallabies' form on the road has not been the best, and seven wins from 23 matches on the road since RWC 2003 is not the stuff of a team trading at 11.0 to win the tournament, nor one at 5.1 to reach the final. Those successes have all been against northern hemisphere opposition though, and from 13 matches. All in, the Provencal capital should witness the dethronement of the World Champions on Saturday.