Betfair Official Blog

Dangerous to assume England will cover the 54.5 handicap to easily

Click here to view market

Betfair's Rugby expert Tony Calvin talks us through England's opening match

ENGLAND begin their World Cup defence with a nice easy game against the USA, and no doubt many punters will expect them to cover Betfair handicap lines of -48.5 and -54.5.

That would appear to have plenty of credence when you consider that the States endured a 51-3 whipping at the hands of the England Saxons (effectively their third string) in the Churchill Cup and were also hammered 52-10 by Canada.

And they were also hit hard recently when their full-back and captain Francois Viljoen ripped knee ligaments in a training camp.

But they are a feisty outfit up front and in the loose - look out for Todd Clever winding up Lawrence Dallaglio in the back row battle - and showed in only losing 13-9 to Scotland A in the same tournament that they can get competitive.

A prolonged spell together will have see their cohesion improved and, with Mike Hercus at fly-half, at least have a steady and experienced hand guiding the ship.

I can't see them scoring more than one try against this England side though, if that, so it is down to the favourites to cut finally cut loose and show they have some three-quarter guile.

I see the inclusion of Olly Barkley in place of the injured Jonny Wilkinson as a massive plus in this respect, as the Bath man attacks and threatens the gain line far more than the 2003 drop-kick hero.

And the pack, which didn't take a backward step against France and was fast forward against Wales at Twickenham, should him a Rolls Royce service.

All in all, I think -54.5 line best reflects the punting nature of this match, with England going into overdrive late on, with perhaps Mathew Tait wreaking havoc from the bench. But perhaps a touch too accurately.

No bet for me, though a back of England at 1.75 or more on the -48.5 line would appeal as a punt.