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Dan the "Top Points Scorer" man - or is he?

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Rugby betting expert Geoffrey Riddle looks at the main players featuring in Betfair's top points scorer market. Geoffrey uses www.statsonsport.com to research his pieces

It's hardly surprising that New Zealand's Dan Carter is favourite at 1.91 to be the World Cup top points scorer. At the time of writing, almost 70 per cent of the trade on this market has been on the All Black No.10, and instead of trying to nab a big-priced winner, traders keen to oppose him have simply laid the jewel in Graham Henry's XV. Although to small money, Carter has been matched at as low as 1.38, but there were those who managed to get 2.4. Lucky them.

Carter obviously has a lot going for him. He is the fly-half for the team that has averaged the most tries per game over the last few years and New Zealand are quite clearly in a Pool which will see them rack up the points. With matches against Scotland and Romania to come, the Kiwis can probably hope for around another 130 points from those games.

They should make the semi-finals (1.12 to do so) which would see them then play the full seven-fixture allocation, regardless of whether they win the tournament or not, and Carter likes to score tries, too (20 in 42 matches).

New Zealand are also the only side to score over 100 points in a game so far, but that is the main drawback. Carter didn't play in the 108-13 humbling of Portugal, and although he is a shoo-in to feature against Scotland, there is a chance he may not play in the run-out against Romania.

Carter, therefore, trails the current top points scorer, South African full-back Percy Montgomery, by 30 points and looks a bit short as a result.
Montgomery, who looks like Prince Charming out of the Shrek film series, currently leads the field with 45 points. He has managed to accumulate those points in the two hardest matches his team should face in Pool B (Samoa and England).

South Africa are currently the same price as New Zealand to reach the semi-finals (they are pencilled in to play Wales in Marseille in the quarters) and should therefore also get the full seven-fixture allocation of matches.

South Africa will have had an eight-day break before their match against Tonga, and there is another eight-day hiatus before their game against USA. The squad should score a hatful of points against those two sides and as that is more than enough time for recovery against minnow nations, it is also conceivable that Montgomery may play all of his team's Pool matches.

The Springbok coach, Jake White, however, has gone on record to say that he may tinker with his side for Saturday, so it may actually be worth waiting until the team news is known before trying to side with the full-back, or laying Carter.

The top points scorers at all five past World Cups scored the most penalties. Gonzalo Quesada didn't even make the semi-finals with Argentina in 1999, but still took the honours, and his compatriot Felipe Contepomi may offer a bit of trading value considering he is neck-and-neck with Montgomery in that department at this early stage.

Given Ireland's dismal tournament so far, it's not too difficult to envisage Argentina topping Pool D and going through to the semis at the expense of either Italy or Scotland. That quarter-final fixture, coupled with the shoot-out against Ireland in Paris on the 30 th September, will give Contepomi numerous chances at goal.

The Argentinean is priced at 50-1 with one regular fixed-odds bookmaker, so if the more speculative trader is willing to chance their arm, it may be worth putting up an inflated price on the lay side and hope you get matched.

Other semi-final prospects Australia, and perhaps France, both have kickers who often share their workload with their teammates. Stirling Mortlock ( 6.6) sometimes shares with Matt Giteau, and Jean-Baptiste Elissalde (6.6) looks worth opposing considering France have a troubled passage to the semi-finals. Even if they do account for their probable quarter-final opposition New Zealand, regular fly-half David Skrela should be fit by the semi-final and could take over the kicking duties anyway.