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Canada v Fiji: Tough match that should make good viewing

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Betting experts Chicken Dinner preview Canada's match against Fiji

Fiji vs Canada, Rugby World Cup, Sunday September 16, Pool B, Cardiff
Canada + 3.5 points

Current world rankings, as of September 10, 2007: Fiji 12, Canada 13.

While certain sectors of Fijian society can be quite fierce about drawing the line on moral standards, eager to prevent the Pacific from turning into that sink of ecstasy-fuelled depravity, the Mediterranean, the Fijian rugby team have a slightly more ambivalent attitude where obedience to rules is concerned. "Expect one marvellous try per game," forecasts the Guardian, "and a couple of outbreaks of joyfully spontaneous violence." As a result, for all its taste-of-paradise, white sand and coconuts reputation, Fiji are unlikely to go out of their way to provide Canada with the honeymoon of their dreams.

On the face of it, this looks like a bit of a mismatch - Fiji have the honour of being regularly visited by gentlemen from New Zealand in search of fresh talent for their national team, while Canadian rugby suffers from a similar degree of ignorance as most things Canadian - what is it you do again, exactly? Canada haven't beaten Fiji since 1995, five games ago. And while both sides believe they are making some sort of progress towards improving on the international stage, Canada have played big Tri/Six Nations teams nine times since the last World Cup and their best result was a 41-6 loss to Italy. On average they conceded 54 points per match, and in five of those games scored six points or less. Fiji, on the other hand, were thumped by both Australia and New Zealand, but only lost to Wales by a point, and even beat Italy (29-18) last summer.

However, Canada come into the game encouraged by the fact that apologetic little Japan blew a frightening gust of cold air up Fiji's grass skirts on Wednesday, when Fiji just hung on to win 35-31. This was the third game of twelve so far in the tournament (Copy: this will change when England play) to finish by a margin of fewer than seven points. If anyone knows all about icy blasts, Canada does. Fourteen of their squad now play abroad, a fact which may not be entirely unrelated to the weather.

In this meeting of hot vs cold, their respective World Cup records are not especially helpful. They've met twice in the tournament and each won once. Recent form gives a bit more of a clue as to why the handicap is so tight. In their games against teams currently ranked 11 to 20 since the last World Cup, Fiji have played 14 (including the Japan game) and won ten, six of them by a margin of just 8 points or fewer. Canada have played ten (seven of them against the USA - get a room!) and lost just two; to Romania by two points and the USA by just one. Clearly they are a team who like to keep their defeats nailbiting. In 2003 against the team that finished above them at the pool stage of the last World Cup - Italy - they lost by just five points. Fiji also did their bit to make sure spectators didn't try to beat the traffic. They beat the USA by one point and lost to Scotland by two.

To further muddy the waters for anyone thinking of venturing in (you can get Canada +3.5 points on betfair at 1.22, Fiji -3.5 on betfair at 2.0), the only teams to have covered the handicap so far in the tournament are the monsters: Australia, South Africa and New Zealand, yet Canada's 12 World Cup defeats have all been by more than 3.5 points. Aspirin?