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Betting experts Chicken Dinner look at England's must-win encounter against Tonga

England vs Samoa, Rugby World Cup, Saturday September 22, Pool A, Nantes
Samoa + 23.5 points

Current IRB world rankings, as of September 17, 2007: England 7, Samoa 13.

If the England rugby team were a schoolboy he'd have been taken to a specialist and prescribed something long ago. He was a super lad four years ago, we were all so proud, but look what he's turned into - he almost doesn't seem to bother any more. Can't seem to do anything right, all the neighbours are doing so much better and anything we say just goes in one ear and straight out the other. We're at our wit's end! So sluggish and uncooperative - and with these big exams coming up and all!

The first test, against Samoa, is not really possible to fail in terms of losing - England have never lost against any of the South Pacific teams. Instead, all eyes will be peeled to "take some positives" from the game. Whether these positives are genuinely encouraging signs or just straws to clutch at depends largely on the state of mind of the observer. And even the most optimistic of followers of the England rugby team over the last four years have had their enthusiasm severely dimmed during that period.

And just to make matters worse, besides being handicapped by a squad of players who behave like they've never met, a coach who'd have better luck herding fish, and an administration whose fundamental purpose seems to be to generate conflict wherever it goes, England are handicapped at 23.5 points in the markets. (You can get Samoa + 23.5 points on betfair at 1.44, England -23.5 points on betfair at 2.94). England haven't beaten a team away from home by more points than this since the first game after the last World Cup, when they beat Italy 50-9.

On the bright side, while England's away form has been worse than hideous since 2003, at least they have a decent overall record in World Cup pool games, and the only teams to have beaten them at this stage have been the Tri-Nations countries. They have never lost the third game at the pool stages and they have never lost to any of the three South Pacific Nations. Their average win against Fiji, Samoa and Tonga is by a shade under 30 points.

Yet as the sun goes back behind the clouds, this is the phase of the tournament when the genuine title contenders are starting to rest their best players, yet England's battered finest are going to have to overcome a Samoa side still smarting from their unexpected defeat against Tonga. So hopes that Samoa will lie down and make life easy for England are slim. Samoa have managed to keep the margin of defeat to less than 23.5 points in three of their four losses to England. The only time England beat that handicap was two years ago when they won 40-7. When they met in the last World Cup, England won 35-22. Prior to this event Samoa has only once lost a World Cup game by more than 23.5 points, against South Africa 60-10 in the last tournament. South Africa did them again a couple of weeks ago, of course, 59-7. But then Samoa didn't expect anything from that game. This is the one they've been building themselves up about, even more so after losing to Tonga. For England it's obviously a must win too. There'll be tears.