Betfair Official Blog

At last Argentina get the betting respect they deserve, but is it too much?

Click here to view market

Tony Calvin previews Sunday's two quarter-finals

PUNTERS were happily backing Wales at 1.04 on Betfair, when they were 3-0 up and pressing the try-line at every turn in the opening stages of their pool game against Fiji last weekend.

How stupid must they have felt when Fiji were 25-3 in front and trading at 1.27 themselves about 15 minutes later!!

But that just sums Fiji up, as did their fightback to win the game 38-34 when Wales re-took the lead in the second half. Always unpredictable, occasionally brilliant, but usually just a very moderate international rugby union side.

So which Fiji will turn up on Sunday? If it is the side that was lucky to beat Japan, then they will lose by 50+.

If it was the side that played Wales, probably about 20.

Which unfortunately means handicaps in the 30s means I won't be playing here.

For all their brilliance, there are so many negatives about Fiji, that I am sure the money buyers will be out in force for Betfair's surprisingly big 1.04 about South Africa winning the match.

Most importantly, Fiji can't scrummage and I can quite easily see the Boks pushing them off their own ball. Secondly, they have lost their fly-half, play-maker and goal-kicker Nicky Little to a knee injury. And thirdly, I can't see their dangerous runners getting any worthwhile ball.

Their centre Seremaia Bai summed it up when saying the following:
"We had 39 per cent possession against Japan - and we won the game. We had 41 per cent against Canada -and we won the game.

"Against Wales we won 100 per cent of our line-outs and had 50 per cent possession, so if we can secure 50 or 60 or 70 per cent [possession] on Sunday we can beat them."
If they can't even get parity against Japan and Canada, I would say that they have no chance against the Boks, who possess the best line-out in the business, even if their scrum is slightly over-rated.
The Boks showed their true colours when beating England 36-0, and can obviously post a similar winning margin and more here. But I sense Betfair's handicap of 34.5 is just too accurate for me.
I will be playing in the Argentina-Scotland game, and perhaps not as regular readers would have envisaged. I will be starting the match with a lay of Argentina at 1.2 in the match odds and at 2.02 on the -13.5 handicap line.
For the first time in this tournament Argentina have been afforded betting respect - can you believe that France were 1.16 to beat them in the opening match? - but perversely perhaps too much.
I don't think there is a more efficient team (with the emphasis firmly on team) in this tournament than Argentina, and I think they will eventually eke out the win in this match. But it will be tight.
Scotland have not impressed and only scraped past Italy 18-16.

But three things lead me to believe that this match will be closer than the betting suggests.

Firstly, they have the best place-kicker in this tournament in Chris Paterson, so you have to think that any Puma indiscipline will be punished; secondly, Scotland have a big line-out that will test the opposition; and thirdly history tells us that there isn't much between these teams.

Since 1994, Argentina have won all five matches but the margins of victory have only been 1,2,9,9 and 4, the most recent result being a Puma 23-19 win at Murrayfield in 2005.
Yes, this is in France, which will favour the French-based Argentinians, but I think this will be closer fought than prices of 1.19 Argentina and 6.4 Scotland suggests.