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Argentina's -3.5 point handicap tells you how close this should be

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Betting experts Chicken Dinner look at why this match has the statisticians scratching their heads

Ireland vs Argentina, Rugby World Cup, Sunday September 30, Pool D, Paris,
Ireland +3.5 pts

Current IRB rankings as of September 27, 2007: Argentina 4, Ireland 6

As always happens with the "pool of death," someone eventually ends up splashing around quite happily in it. This year's happy bathers are Argentina, enjoying their best World Cup ever, turning the odds on their head and ruining the tournament for the hosts by beating them on opening day. Since then the Pumas have ripped through minnows Georgia (33-3) and Namibia (63-3) gaining bonus points and admirers along the way, as well as any prizes going for resilient defence. No team has conceded fewer points in this tournament. Ireland, on the other hand, are flailing in the quicksand, and their record of qualifying for the knockout stages of every World Cup so far is looking like it may not survive the weekend.

Their wretched opening performance against Namibia (the lowest ranked team in the World cup) resulted in an unconvincing 32-17 win. The Irish fielded a virtually full strength team against the Africans but failed to take control of the match, allowing the minnows to score two second-half tries and only secured victory through a penalty try and an 'interesting' refereeing decision. They then stumbled past Georgia 14-10, not even obtaining a bonus point. With France demolishing Namibia 87-10 and the Irish then losing to the hosts 25-3, Ireland's bags should be packed and on the bus to the airport. To progress they must now beat the Pumas by more than seven points, and score four tries to obtain a bonus point.

In their last three meetings since their 2003 World Cup match (which Ireland won 16-15), the Irish have won only once, 21-19 in Dublin. Argentina won 22-20 in Santa Fe and 16-0 in Buenos Aires in warm up games for this tournament. To make matters worse, Argentina are currently ranked fourth in the world, their highest ever ranking. For superstitious optimists, since 1970, the pattern has been for Argentina to win two followed by three wins for Ireland, and as Argentina won the last two, it is now Ireland's turn. This may be Ireland's best hope.

The Ireland +3.5 points handicap offered (you can get Ireland +3.5 on betfair at 2, Argentina -3.5 on betfair at 1.97) is the second narrowest available on any of the pool games (only Scotland/Italy is tighter). In four of the last five games between them you would have lost betting on Argentina with this line, including their meeting in the last World Cup, even though only two of Argentina's 22 wins since the last World Cup have been by fewer than 3.5 points.

But if indifferent form weren't enough to worry about, many Irish fans may be getting feelings of deja vu (amid large doses of worry and panic) as it was the Argentinians who halted their progress in World Cup 1999, beating them 28-24 in a quarter-final play-off match. Argentina went on to lose to eventual finalists France 26-47 in the next round. Last call for Dublin.