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Argentina to give Namibia a kick up the backside

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Betting experts Chicken Dinner tell you all you need to know about Argentina's clash with Namibia

Argentina vs Namibia, Rugby World Cup, Saturday September 22, Pool D, Marseilles
Namibia +53.5 points

Current IRB World rankings, as of September 17: Argentina 4, Namibia 24.

The latest stop in Namibia's endless tour of World Cup defeatsis Marseille, birthplace of Eric Cantona, Zinedine Zidane and Arsenal's Mathieu Flamini, whose biggest fan is a man frequently sighted at the Emirates wearing an Arsenal shirt with the name Flamini picked out on the back in spangles, none other than the former Mr Liza Minelli, David Gest. This then, is a place where they admire the idiosyncratic, independent spirit and venerate the madman. None of which helps forecast for which side the locals will be cheering when the teams run out. Will they be seduced by the Namibians' doomed project? Or will they be more enthralled by the flair and brio of the Argentinians, even if they did impose their charm to devastating effect on the French national side just a couple of weeks ago?

This is also the stage of the World Cup when the goals of competing teams start to diverge spectacularly, and Argentina will be looking over Namibia's shoulder to the contest with Ireland in a week's time. Namibia will be wanting to avoid the kind of demoralising defeat that each World Cup supposes, especially as they've already experienced one this event against France (87-10).

As an indication of how smaller teams can start to unravel quite badly at this stage of the tournament, Argentina have been saddled with an immense 53.5 point handicap in the betting, the sort of hurdle that only France and the Tri-Nations sides have been able to overcome this World Cup. Argentina hasn't won by a gap this large at all in its last 15 games, and that includes a game against their traditional punchbag neighbours Chile, who they beat 60-13. (Chile and Namibia are ranked next to each other in the official IRB World Rankings, with Namibia one spot better than Chile.) In their last 15 games away from home Argentina has a good record, winning nine, but has not put up a single victory by 53.5 points or more.

Argentina has met Namibia once before in World Cup competition, their only meeting, in the pool stages of the last World Cup. Argentina prevailed 67-14, which as mathematicians will instantly identify, is about as close as you can get to a 53.5 point handicap without beating it. Indeed, Argentina has won all four games it has played against weaker opponents in the pool stages of the competition, and not yet won any by a 53.5 point margin. (You can get Namibia +53.5 points on betfair at 1.63, Argentina -53.5 points on betfair at 2.12.)

Namibia, though, know all about being on the wrong end of that sort of margin. Of their nine World Cup games - and nine World Cup defeats - four of them have been by more than 53.5 points, against Ireland, Australia, Canada and France. If Argentina think they might be on the verge of putting up a score for the record books, though, they might want to take this into account. While some of the biggest scores in World Cups have come when countries rest a lot of first teamers and let the back ups off the leash (as Argentina surely will), four of the five biggest ever scores in rugby World Cup history have been between team who had never previously met before (New Zealand and Japan, Australia and Namibia, England and Uruguay, New Zealand and Portugal). Argentina and Namibia have already made acquaintance. Hard luck, Argentina.