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Betting experts Chicken Dinner provide some food for thought on New Zealand's match against minnows Portugal

New Zealand vs Portugal, Rugby World Cup, Saturday September 15, Pool C, Lyons
Portugal + 110.5 points

Current IRB world rankings, as of September 10, 2007: New Zealand 1, Portugal 22

Here you are then, rugby sadists, this is the one you've all been waiting for. This could be the cruelest piece of televised evisceration in the history of the Rugby World Cup. Normal viewers will have turned away appalled at the inhumanity of it long before the referee has delivered the final parp on his whistle. The commentators are going to be heading into uncharted territory as well, as the mismatch section in their book of clichés stops at David and Goliath, who were evenly matched compared to these two, such is the gulf in class between the two sides. Even "gulf" can go and take a seat. This is unmeasurable.

In the last three World Cups New Zealand have made a point of stretching their legs at least once against smaller sides, except none of those sides were as small as Portugal. In 1995 they demolished Japan 145-17. In 1999 it was Italy's turn, by a humiliating 101-3. In 2003 they let themselves down by only beating Tonga 91-7. At the time, Tonga were ranked 12 in the world, though. This time Portugal are just about as insignificant a team as has ever wandered into the World Cup. As far as New Zealand are concerned, they might as well be Dagenham and Redbridge. Probably for the first time ever, journalists are genuinely worried (although also secretly excited) about the physical wellbeing of one of the teams. But when the dust settles and the Portuguese are safely back in the hospital with their bandages on, what will the scoreboard read? A handicap of 110.5 points is a bit of a challenge - it means scoring at getting on for a point and a half a minute, and that's assuming that Portugal don't score at all. (You can get Portugal + 110.5 points on betfair for 2.08, New Zealand -110.5 points on betfair for 1.87).

New Zealand have only scored more than 100 points three times in their history, and have only once won by a margin of more than 110.5 points (the win over Japan in 1995. The other two were against Tonga in 2000, 102-0, and the Italy game in 1999.)

With Portugal, it's very hard to predict just how intense their pain will be - they've only once conceded more than 100 points, against Wales 102-11 in May 1994. Their worst ever losing margin was against Romania in 1996. Their heaviest recent defeat came against normally well-mannered Italy, who beat them 83 - 0 in October 2006 (Italy, you'll recall, went over like cardboard 76-14 in their pool game against New Zealand last Saturday.) Against Tri/Six Nations teams in their last 15 matches, Portugal's heaviest defeat came against Scotland in their first pool match.

Of the five games in World Cup history in which teams have scored more than 100 points, none of them have been as early as the second pool game. All but one were in the last pool game, the exception being Australia's 2003 demolition of Namibia in the third pool game out of four, suggesting that weak teams are most vulnerable when they are most knackered. Just as more experienced teams tend to pull away from weaker teams toward the end of a game (such as Argentina against Georgia) so the difference becomes even more pronounced towards the end of tournaments, when the minnows' spirit is good and broken.