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A hairy encounter for Ireland

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Betting experts Chicken Dinner look ahead at Ireland's crucial clash with France

Ireland vs France, Rugby World Cup, Friday, September 21, Pool D, Paris
Ireland +12.5 points
Current IRB World rankings, as of September 17: France 5, Ireland 6.

(Ire+12.5 2.3 France -12.5 1.73)
At last a game with real ingredients! Huge cauliflower-eared Irishmen who exhale steam every day, regardless of air temperature! A French side bent double under the weight of national rugby expectations - victory here would inspire a flowering of Romantic poetry not previously endured since the 19th century! A game in which at first glance both sides stand a chance of winning! Sacre bleu, commentators, this one is going to need the Bumper Book of Hysterical Superlatives. And just as a little extra pepper, the losers know they run a serious risk of watching the knockout stages of the tournament on television, from beneath an immovable cloud of depression and with an angry mob in the garden.

It wouldn't be the first time in a situation such as this that fear grips the coaches, defensive mindsets lock the brain and the television audience drifts off to examine the contents of the fridge well before half time. But who needs drama when you've got a 12.5 point handicap to straddle? (You can get Ireland +12.5 points on betfair at 2.3, and France - 12.5 points on betfair at 1.72).

If Ireland want to hang on to the belief that they could emerge glorious from this game, they had better find something other to read than the form book against France. What a depressing piece of writing! Ireland haven't beaten France since 2003. They have only beaten them three times in the last ten. And taking a longer view, three times in the last 24. Those 24 games include two World Cup quarter finals, both won by France (43-21 in 2003, 36-12 in 1995). Between February 1986 and February 1999 France beat Ireland in 15 consecutive games. Since 1970, Ireland have won just once against France in France, 27-25 in March 2000. Not the most intimidating of margins. This kind of bullying takes generations to overcome - Ireland, you are in a very scary place.

In slightly more cheerful news, although it's not instantly clear for whom, Ireland have a far better record against France if you factor in a 12.5 point handicap. France have covered a 12.5 points difference in just 12 of the last 20 games between the two, and Ireland haven't lost a Six Nations game by more than 12.5 points since February 2004, when they lost 35-17 to - of course - France. Of their last 15 wins, France have won seven of them by a margin of more than 12.5 points (against Namibia, Wales, England, Scotland, Italy and Romania). England, Wales, Ireland, Argentina and South Africa are the teams they have beaten by a margin of fewer than 12.5 points. So are Ireland more like Argentina and South Africa? Or Namibia and Romania?

As a last ray of hope for Irish sympathizers, Ireland have had to negotiate a crunch match in the pool stage of every World Cup so far, and they have a great record in them. In 2003 they snuck past Argentina by a single point (16-15) to qualify. In 1999 they had to beat Romania and sailed past them (44-14). In 1995 they kept it close again and beat Wales by a point (24-23) to qualify. In 1991 they had to beat Scotland to win the group,and failed (15-24). And in 1987 they had to beat Tonga to qualify, and did (32-9). So four out five isn't bad. Of course, this may not be their crunch match. That might come on September 30 against Argentina. Dramatic organ music, please!