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60.5 point handicap should be "no worries" for Australia against Japan

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Betfair Rugby expert Tony Calvin on why key injuries to Japan should allow the Wallabies to cover the handicap

Betfair's opening handicap market of -45.5 on this game was so far out of line that Australia are currently being supported at 1.23 to cover it - and cover it they will.

And the Wallabies will start as odds-on favourites on the revised -60.5 line, too. And probably cover that as well.

The reason is that Australia are obviously about three classes apart from their opponents - witness Tri Nations home defeats of New Zealand and South Africa - but more importantly the injuries to key Japanese players.

The Cherry Blossoms have been dealt some cruel blows in the lead-up to the World Cup and the young and inexperienced Kosei Ono has been thrust into the playmaker's role at number 10 following an injury to Japan's first-choice fly-half Eiji Ando.

They had already lost fellow fly-half, the less Japanese-sounding James Arlidge, with a broken leg, as well as leading tryscorer Daisuke Ohata, who ruptured his Achilles in the Portugal game in August.

And to cap it all, their captain Takuro Miuchi in also on the absentee list.

It is looking grim.

It gets grimmer when you also consider that Australia beat Japan 71-10 in June and they have wheeled out their best side for this opener.

I am not a particular fan of backing sides to beat massive handicaps - the ease-off factor can be a killer late in games - and will probably refrain from getting involved here.

But this does point heavily to a 60+ Australia win. I would want even money at least on that, though, in order to get involved.