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Suicidal match to bet on... but Ireland's price still too big

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Geoffrey Riddle talks us through the betting in this dead-rubber Six Nations clash between England and Ireland where Cipriani's recall and O' Gara's captaincy are the main talking points

England v Ireland

ENGLAND CAN DRAW FIRST BLOOD

By Geoffrey Riddle

(Geoffrey uses www.statsonsport.com for his analysis)

Anyone who has a clue what is going in England coach Brian Ashton's head should stand up now. If anyone is standing up at their computer screen, please sit down now (you probably look rather silly), but sit down in the knowledge that you are in a very small minority in this country.
Ashton has dropped Jonny Wilkinson for the hyped-up Danny Cipriani for his side's dead rubber against Ireland at Twickenham. Fair enough, but bizarrely, it is the 61-year-old's only change to the team that performed so appallingly against Scotland last weekend at Murrayfield.

What is Ashton thinking? If he really wants to win this game convincingly, then surely he should put out his best side? If he wants to treat this match as a football friendly, by trying out some new players, then why is the precocious Cipriani the only change? Where is James Simpson-Daniel who he called up to the squad late last week? Why did he even do that?
Whichever way Ashton is thinking, he must know that Ireland will be a severe test for his side, who appear low on confidence. Ireland have won the last four run-ins with England and that record stretches to five from the eight Six Nations clashes. It is a meagre return for the Red Rose and there will be many Irish out there dreaming of a St Patrick's weekend triumph in Middlesex.

Ireland can be backed at [2.9] on Betfair to win the match, and considering England have failed this championship to put away Wales, Scotland, and Italy convincingly - against whom they were overwhelming favourites, it must be remembered - that doesn't look the worst value in the world.

Punters keen to take a view on the untried Cipriani can back the young Wasp in a points matchbet with Ireland stand-off Ronan O'Gara, who captains the visitors in the absence of Brian O'Driscoll, missing due to injury.

For those interested in this matchbet, Cipriani has kicked 38 of his 53 attempts at goal in the Premiership for Wasps this season but, as yet, the liquidity in this market is fairly minor at the time of writing.

Ireland have slowly shrugged off the turgid performances that characterised their World Cup last year, but they showed a real naivety in allowing Wales to get a win in Dublin last weekend.
O'Sullivan will have given his squad a lecture in being more streetwise for this contest and the Irish raiders will need to start well if they are to get the home side in a lather by worrying of another calamitous defeat.

The only obstacle to that tactic is that England are really rather good at opening the scoring at home. It seems to be one of the only things that they have been continuously good at since lifting the World Cup. There have been 11 Six Nations games at Twickenham since the start of the 2004 tournament and England have scored the first try in ten of them. Their record is not quite so impressive in November internationals, a record which stands at around a 60 per cent strike-rate, but it highlights the side's effectiveness in the opening exchanges.

This is a dead-rubber. We don't know how each team will play after pride-bruising defeats. England have a new fly-half in Cipriani, Ireland have a new captain in O'Gara. To me that sounds like betting suicide to have an investment on the outcome of this fixture. The only constant is England's record of scoring a try first, something which you can currently get [1.73] about on Betfair.