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Six Nations Betting: Reformed Henson can help Wales go close

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Pablo Luna - Monlighting for Betfair. Pablo tells us why the trio of Jones, Hook and Henson can push Ireland all the way on their own turf

The time has come to see what Wales have achieved so far as they take on Ireland at Croke Park, Dublin on Saturday (kick off 1315GMT). Wales have responded magnificently under Kiwi Gatland and his assistant Shaun Edwards and are the only unbeaten side in the RBS Six Nations but this is their sternest test so far, especially after Ireland's five-try demolition of Scotland.

Wales have only won five of their last 21 matches against Ireland. They have been hammered during their last four appearances in Dublin where they have conceded 156 points and scoring a paltry 42.

It will be fascinating to see how the sacking of Gatland from Ireland in 2001 manifests itself. It was a day in which sneaky Eddie O'Sullivan did not cover himself in glory! Despite denials of the significance of it from both camps there is a lingering bitterness which will surely lead to a bit of aggro!

Ireland are [1.69] with Wales trading at [2.56]. The draw is [32]. I make the game closer than that with Wales the value. It is hard to win in Ireland but I could not take those short odds for the home win. The draw could easily come into play! It is that close. Wales with +4.5pts is [1.86] and Ireland with -4.5pts are [2.1]. Prices with Betfair.

The most intriguing and critical part of the match will be the confrontation between Stephen Jones and Ronan O'Gara. Wales will be dependent on the steadying influence and Jones' know-how to police and cancel out O'Gara's threat. The choice was control, decision-making and game management of Jones against Hook's more instinctive contributions. Gatland declared "If we don't keep a tight rein on Ronan O'Gara it could be a long day for us".

Jones has the talent and the attitude to lead from the front, he realises the importance of imposing himself. He played a prominent role in Wales' grand slam triumph of 2005 and was named fly-half of the championship scoring the majority of the points. He was restored to the starting line-up for the visit of Italy a fortnight ago after coming off the bench in the match against Scotland to steady the ship and steer Wales home to victory. He then gave an authoritative performance against Italy scoring 18 points in the process.

Stephen Jones (30) and James Hook (22) have been magnificent so far when sharing the fly-half job. Jones and Hook have successfully converted all 21 goalkick attempts in Wales' wins over England, Scotland and Italy. Hook scored 12 points as Wales eased past Scotland but Jones' impeccable display with the boot, kicking 18 points, inspired the Welsh to a record Six Nation's victory over Italy.

I understand Gatland's dilemma. Despite Hook being man-of-the-match against England the coach emphasised the need for him to make some noise and impose himself with this team-mates. Gatland is acutely aware of his immense ability but wants him to strengthen and toughen up mentally before he becomes world class as he has everything else! His goalkicking is faultless, his movement and distribution slick and he is tactically sound for his young years. All Blacks coach Steve Hansen says New Zealand put Wales starlet James Hook in the same category as Dan Carter. Praise indeed!

I noted only muted noises in Wales when Jones was given the nod over star pupil Hook. Is it possible that Wales are beginning to accept the collective team ethic - surely not?

The other player to impress so far is Gavin Henson. He has been doing his job brilliantly. Looking mature and showing some lovely touches he has excelled defensively and been exceptionally influential. He has grasped what the pragmatic Warren Gatland expects and it could be possible he is on his way back to realising his potential.

Tom Shanklin has also made an impression and Alun Wyn Jones did well against England. He is back for the Ireland game - could he be the next Lions lock? The player on top of his game at the moment is Shane Williams, he looks fit and sharp as a razor. I am convinced he will score at some point in the game but it is going to be a close one, that's for sure!