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Six Nations betting: Only Sheridan can halt France

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Geoffrey Riddle tells us why a big performance from man-mountain Andrew Sheridan can allow England to keep things tight against France

Geoffrey uses www.statsonsport.com for his analysis

France [1.44] v England [3.45] Draw [40]

This is it then. France's clash with England in the Stade de France should finally answer so many of the questions that have dogged the first two rounds of this year's championship. Are Marc Lievremont's new-look French side really as good as they appear? Can England harness their first-half performance against Wales at Twickenham and put it into action? Did Scotland really push back the French scrum at Murrayfield, and if so, what chance have they got against Andrew Sheridan and the massive pack that lines up behind him?

All will hopefully be revealed in Paris, where England defeated Bernard Laporte's Les Bleus just four months ago at the World Cup. That semi-final victory makes the [1.44] about a French success very difficult to take seriously, no matter what Brian Ashton's team have shown so far.
Lievremont has taken a massive gamble in choosing such an inexperienced half-back pairing in Morgan Parra and Francois Trinh-Duc, especially since they are in tandem with the similarly wet-behind the ears Louis Picamoles at No.8.

Trinh-Duc had an exciting debut against the Scots in round one, but the 21-year-old, who hasn't even played in a Heineken Cup fixture, was sandwiched between the wise heads of Damien Traille and Jean-Baptiste Elisalde.

That won't be the case in Paris, where 19-year-old Parra starts at scrum-half. If Sheridan and Co can really turn up the heat on a French pack, who seemed to struggle against Scotland, what chance have France's glorious back three of Cederic Heymans, Vincent Clerc and Aurelien Rougerie of seeing the ball with their pack in retreat and their half-backs losing their cool?

Which brings us to the Clerc v Jonny Wilkinson market. England's fly-half has been paired in a points match bet with the fleet-footed French winger. Wilkinson averages 3.2 penalties in away games for England when he has been the sole kicker, and in those matches since his comeback from injury, England have averaged a try a game. To beat England's points machine on an average day at the office, Clerc would have to score two tries at least, something which he has managed to do twice in the last four months in the Stade de France. Have another glance at this market nearer kick-off when it has more liquidity.

If England stick to their undoubted strength and look to their pack to monster the French eight, they should starve the French of possession and stay in touch. I'm not saying that they are going to win, but there are two handicaps on Betfair for England, one which gives the visitors a 6.5-point start and one which gives Ashton's squad an 18.5-point start, and both should be enough. The best bet however, looks to be in the winning margin market, which sees a French victory at 1-12 points trading at [2.82].

Punters who agree with this vision of the match will also be keen on the total points market. In the 14 matches that these two teams have played since 2000, the total points average stands at 37.8. There are five matches that broke the 40-point barrier, but only one above 45 and that was when France were thrashed 48-19 back in 2001. The total points market has been set at 39.5 and at that level there is bound to be furious in-running trade towards the end of the tie.

Former England fly-half Stuart Barnes is usually correct in his analysis. He has been harping on all week, however, about the need to make progress from the World Cup by making sweeping changes to the England side, which, to a certain extent, needs to be done. But for a former England player, he seems to be taking very lightly the importance of winning matches, especially against the French.

There can be nothing more important than victory in Paris. Beat Les Bleus in any way you like, and England can go to Murrayfield with the confidence to harness the likes of Danny Cipriani at full-back and Dylan Hartley at hooker, should Ashton wish to. Lose by a massive margin in the name of experimentation, and England's championship sinks back into the mire they have been wallowing in since their 2003 World Cup triumph.

Ashton is in a no-win situation in the face of the media, but you have to applaud his determination to try and win, however brutish and ugly the display might be, and however much it grates against his personal philosophy of running, attacking rugby .