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Six Nations Betting: Hot favourites France to set up title decider

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Alister Morgan previews Sunday's France v Italy Six Nations clash

France must be thoroughly sick of England. It doesn't seem to matter what kind of form they're in, England have a knack of beating France in their own back yard of late. At least France have the opportunity to get back on the proverbial winning horse with a home fixture against Italy on Sunday. The Azzurri are no pushovers but the Welsh exposed them as a one dimensional team. For their part France will welcome the opportunity to banish the ghosts of English rugby past.

Some have suggested that France were too young and inexperienced but I disagree with any argument that in any way devalues England's win over Marc Lievremont's talented side. The France squad has been re-built to give youthful talent its head and, despite last week's defeat to England, the plan is working well with many young players rising to the occasion.

France have produced some stunning rugby of late particularly on the wings; coupled with their willingness to play out of their own 22, France have entertained us and racked up 66 points along the way.

England were able to blunt the sublime talents of Vincent Clerc and Co because their players adhered to a superior gameplan. England's forward line shut down key areas with some ferocious defending thereby cutting down the space available to the talented France backline.

The dilemma for France, (as they face an Italy team they should beat comfortably), is whether to overhaul team tactics or stick with the system and players that delivered impressive victories against Scotland and Ireland? For this week at least Lievremont will select the former option.
Three more players will make first starts for France including 19-year-old Bourgoin centre Yann David and in total there will be nine changes from the team that played England a fortnight ago. Lievremont will rest some key players and give vital experience to up-and-coming talent. Biarritz scrum-half Dimitri Yachvili is also set to start and is certainly no novice at this level so I expect his trusty boot to provide more variation and structure to France's attacking play.

During Italy's first two defeats to Ireland and England they relished the chance to dent the reputations of their lofty opponents. Unfortunately the only lasting impression they left on Wales can be seen around Lee Byrne's eye courtesy of Mauro Bergamasco.

New coach Nick Mallett will attempt to rediscover the same intensity that made life so uncomfortable for Ireland and England in this year's tournament. Nevertheless, on their home pitch France are huge favourites and you can back them to win at [1.06]. Italy will pin their hopes on the fact that their starting XV has much more experience but their preparations have been damaged by the 13-week ban handed down to Bergamasco.

The only time Italy defeated France was in 1997 an if you think that another upset is on the cards you can back Italy to win at [20.0] or the draw at [95.0]... just don't hold you breath waiting for a speedy return on your investment.

If Italy are to cause an upset then Andrea Massi will have to have a good game at no. 10. He certainly has requisite skills and if Italy's high octane start wins them good territory then the home side just might succumb to a bout of nerves in-front of a demanding home crowd.

If France start well things will look pretty grim for Italy and I expect the visitors to reprise the familiar role of plucky losers. I don't predict a Parisian massacre as the Gladiators of Rome are rarely faint of heart so, if you're looking for an outside bet, I'd back France to win by less than 12.5 points at [3.8].