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Six Nations Betting: France can forge ahead

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Rugby betting expert Geoffrey Riddle looks at the test facing Ireland at the Stade de France

France [1.2] v Ireland [6.4] Draw [50.0]

France have won their last six encounters with Ireland, and given the contrasting displays that both sides put in last weekend, it is surprising that Les Blues aren't shorter than 1.2 on Betfair.

France were magnificent at Murrayfield on Sunday. New coach Marc Lievremont has injected a new enthusiasm into some old faces, while his broom has not been shy in sweeping out some of the players who had become complacent under old coach Bernard Laporte.

It was their attacking outlook that was the most striking fixture of last weekend's 27-6 victory in Edinburgh. France made eight clean line-breaks, scything through Frank Hadden's under-cooked defence, and it was interesting to see that the French held the most possession and field position in both halves.

Newcomers Julien Malzieu, who misses out this week through a late injury, and Fulgence Ouedraogo put in solid debuts, especially the open-side flanker, who topped the tackle charts in the mould of predecessor Serge Betsen.

There is a sneaking suspicion amongst the press that Marc Lievremont is far more able than he is letting on, and the possibility remains that the former France flanker actually rested his best players for the Ireland clash at the Stade de France.

David Skrela returns at fly-half for the able Francois Trinh-Duc, while Vincent Clerc continues on the wing for Malzieu with Aurelien Rougerie also coming into the side. There is an opportunity to take a view on Clerc, as Betfair features a market about whether he will score over/under 1.5 tries.

It's a potent mix, and one that look likely to produce a points' fest. Betfair have pitched their total points [44.5] slightly higher than the spread firms, who initially priced up their quotes at around 40-43.

This has historically been a high-scoring fixture, which averages 51 points in the five match-ups in Paris. Four of those fixtures featured more than 44.5 points, although the recent World Cup head-to-head finished 25-3.

I spoke to a spread firm's rugby traders on Thursday, and although he agreed that France wouldn't struggle to score points, he was cautious about how Ireland would keep the scoreboard ticking over.

Betfair have pitched Ireland's points at 16.5. Ireland have played 20 matches on the road in the Six Nations since 2000 and they have beaten that figure on 17 occasions. The last time they scored less than 16.5 points in a Six Nations game away from home was five years ago when they lost 44-5 to France.