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Scotland v England: Ashton's men should prove too much for impotent Scots

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England have the wind in their sails and Scotland can't score, so Geoffrey Riddle tells us why he expects England to cover the -8.5 point handicap

Geoffrey uses www.statsonsport.com for his analysis

Scotland [5.8] v England [1.23] Draw [42.0]

Scotland are two from four at Murrayfield against England in the Six Nations, and in the eyes of the more optimistic punter, the [5.9] on offer about Frank Hadden's men beating England in Edinburgh may look value.

Duncan Hodge's 74th-minute try for the Scots in 2000 capped a glorious performance by the fly-half and lead to the 19-13 victory that extinguished England's hopes of a Grand Slam. That one-man show was mimicked by Chris Paterson in 2006, when his dead-eyed kicking inspired the Scots to an 18-12 success under Hadden.

The problem for Scottish fans this year is that there is no Grand Slam denying to be done. Also, where their team had beaten France 20-16 in Edinburgh prior to that famous victory over the Auld Enemy two years ago, Hadden's squad got a complete mauling at the hands of Marc Liveremont's new-look French side in round one.

That 26-7 defeat has pretty much set the tone for Scotland's challenge this year and their price to finish bottom has dwindled from being matched at as high as [5.6] to a more sober -looking [2.28].

The team have looked nervous and they lack any composure and confidence. They are by far and away the most frustrating team in the Championship to watch, not least because they can't score tries. Duck-eggs litter their tries-for column, and since Hadden took over from beleaguered coach Matt Williams, Scotland have failed to cross the whitewash in a third of their games.

Scotland average 15 points per game at Murrayfield when playing against teams who were ranked higher in the IRB World Rankings and it is frightening how much they depend on Paterson for points.

Since the start of the 2004 Six Nations, the Gloucester pivot has played 37 matches for Scotland where he was the sole kicker. He has scored 51 per cent of his side's points in those matches, which is not particularly surprising, but when you consider that he has scored 65 per cent of his side's points in just those Six Nations matches, you start to wonder that he isn't targeted more often by the opposition.

Paterson has been the most accurate kicker in the world for about the last three years and without him, Scotland are dead in the water.

England cross the border with the wind in their sails, having soundly beaten France through a mixture of dominant forward play, an astute realisation of how to defend against the new-look Les Bleus and Jonny Wilkinson making the right decisions at the right time.

Confidence will not be lacking in the tightly-knit squad, even if Danny Cipriani has been dropped for inappropriate behaviour, and it was interesting to see in Paris that England had finally learned to use the considerable bulk of Lesley Vainikolo. The beaded warrior started to come off his wing with devastating effect in the latter stages of that clash and if he does so here, Scottish centre Graeme Morrison, who starts his first international for almost four years, could be in for a rude awakening.

Put it down to over-confidence, arrogance, or just the heroic performances of a select few hosts, but England have often struggled to break down sides that they have been over-whelming favorites to beat on the road. It's not as if they have got out of that habit either, as Italy's roaring comeback in Rome in round two testifies.

England were sensational in the first half against Wales, decent in the first 40 against Italy and the building blocks of that 24-13 win in the Stade de France were put down before the break as well.

England look vulnerable in the second half against teams who can exploit weakness, but once more, Scotland do not have that attribute in what is looking like a very empty armoury indeed. Excluding the games against Romania in 2006 and Samoa in 2005, Scotland have scored more points in the second half than the first in only three of the 12 games at Murryafield under Hadden. A stirring rearguard action after a thumping half-time team-talk looks highly unlikely from the home side therefore, and it seems that all Brian Ashton's squad have to do is get their nose in front early to beat the handicap of -8.5 points.