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Six Nations Betting: Scotland can pip Italy to the wooden spoon

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Morgan in the Driving Seat - Alister Morgan tells us why Italy aren't nailed on to finish bottom in the Six Nations like they used to be

Six teams take part but there's only one winner. As the Six Nations approaches perhaps it's more prudent to consider which team will prop up the table when hostilities cease...? It's certainly more fun. Which team will cover themselves in shame and which coach will likely fall on his sword after collecting the wooden spoon?

Since the tournament expanded in 2000 to include Italy, the Azzurri is usually favourites to fail. Since joining the 'Gladiators of Rome' have endured a rough start finishing bottom between 2000-02 but in the five tournaments since they've only finished bottom twice.

Ferocious scrummaging and some maverick back play won many friends and surprised a few 'established' nations last year. England finished comfortable winners 20-7 (although it finished a try each) at Twickenham but many forget that, approaching the final weekend of games, Italy had a mathematical chance of winning the tournament.

They were given little chance of defeating Ireland but Italy put up a fantastic fight in front of their home crowd and went in at halftime a mere point behind. They eventually lost 24-51 but not before delivering a fatal sting to Ireland's Championship aspirations with a last-gasp converted try that reduced France's required winning margin to 23 points.

Along the way was my favourite game of the tournament when Italy beat Scotland 37-17 at Murrayfield in front of 50,000 shell-shocked fans. A try in the opening minutes set the tone and Italy would score three more including one from 'Pepe' Scanavacca. The Italy fly half also scored seventeen points with the boot to seal Italy's first win away from home and a week later a last minute Bergamasco try ensured a narrow victory at Stadio Flaminio, Rome against Wales.

Scotland finished bottom of the pile last year just above Wales. Both teams finished on two points while Italy scaled new heights finishing fourth.

All three countries had poor World Cup campaigns so picking an overall loser is not easy but Wales have shown enough promise of late to suggest a revival. To my mind that leaves Scotland and Italy as serious contenders for the accolade no team wants.
Currently, Italy [1.63] is favourites to win the wooden spoon but I think I'd back Scotland [3.75] who looks just as vulnerable. Compared to Scotland, the Italians have much less pressure to deal with but there's little evidence that Scotland has raised their game lately and an opening match hosting France is a tough as it gets.
Scotland [2.5] is not fancied to beat France [1.5] and with good reason. The France side has plenty of talent and will be aiming to win the tournament for the third successive year.

Scotland coach Frank Hadden has included six uncapped players in their Six Nations training squad - Edinburgh backs Ben Cairns, Nick De Luca and Calum MacRae, Glasgow wing Thom Evans and prop Moray Low and Edinburgh back-row forward Ross Rennie. There's plenty of talent (Cairns is one to watch if he makes the starting fifteen) but experience is lacking among the backs so I expect France to win.

You can back Italy [7] to beat Ireland in their opening game but there's little chance of them defeating a side who many expect to win the tournament.

More interestingly, Italy's first home game is against England presenting a potential banana skin for the World Cup finalists. Under new captain Sergio Parisse, (the No 8 from Stade Francais) Italy coach Nick Mallett is hoping to kick-off a new chapter in Italian rugby - kicking England down along the way would be a great start.

Italy will not challenge for the top spot for years but they're no longer a dead-cert to fail and their final fixture is likely to decide who wins the wooden spoon as Scotland visit Rome. Considering last year's results and current form I'd back Scotland to [3.75] to win the wooden spoon or am I being too harsh on Hadden's side?