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Six Nations Betting: No 'Grand Slam' for me, says TC

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Betfair's Senior Press Officer TC - Tony Calvin - tells us why he thinks a Grand Slam winner is out of the equation as regards this year's Six Nations

THIS is the most open Six Nations I can recall - with home advantage, every team is capable of beating each other - so I have no hesitation in nominating No Grand Slam winner at [1.81] on Betfair as the best of the tournament.

So far, at least, because there are still plenty of Betfair markets still to come on the tournament, so watch this space.

There is clearly no stand-out side this year - the World Cup in the autumn confirmed as much - and the fixture list dictates that I would be pricing up any side winning all their fixtures at around [3.0] at a minimum, so the [1.73] on the opposite side of the bet looks an absolute steal.

The market is admittedly very light at this stage, but the easiest way to approach this from a punter's, and punting, point of view is take the odds for each team to complete the Grand Slam and consider them as betting propositions at the price.

Reject them all as rank bad value in a book currently trading at 108 per cent (as the Betfair market is), and the odds are that you will be backing the only other option - and in this instance that is obviously No Grand Slam winner.

Let's start with France, who are currently trading at [4.1] for the Grand Slam.

Yes, as they showed in beating New Zealand 20-18 in the World Cup quarter final, at their best they are the most complete side in this tournament.

And the draw - they play home matches against their two main rivals in the betting, namely England and Ireland - clearly gives them the best opportunity of the sextet of winning all their matches.

But those games are clearly no gimmes (after all, England beat them 14-9 in the World Cup semi-final at the Stade de France in October), and I would have severe doubts about them coming away from Murrayfield with a win in their opening match in February.

The Scottish sides have given as good as they have got against the French sides in the Heineken Cup matches this season, and the national side would be no more than 5-point underdogs in this match with me. In fact, I would edge towards making it a scratch game.

I also can't see France relishing the task at the Millennium the following month either, as you would have to fancy Wales will up their game this season after the arrival of Warren Gatland.

France lost 20-16 in their 2006 Six Nations opener at Murrayfield and only scraped past Wales in Cardiff 21-16 that year, courtesy of a late try (though the French hammered them 34-7 in a World Cup warm-up match there last year).

With four "losable" fixtures, I can't get over-excited by the French at their current odds.

England are next in the Grand Slam betting at [6.4], and that certainly isn't enticing. In fact, it probably ranks as the worst value in the market.

Yes, they got to the World Cup final, beating Australia and France en route. And in Andrew Sheridan, they have a scrum anchor that will give them a solid basis to go about their business.

But I find it hard to forget their World Cup form prior to the knock-out stages, and I think the decision to stick with Phil Vickery as captain is a negative (Matt Stevens should be starting).

Furthermore, their Six Nations squad could have given youth its head far more for this tournament (especially in the backs) and if England cannot play integrated 15-man rugby here than they will struggle.

Certainly, an away win in Italy is no banker anymore and trips to France (where they have lost their last three Six Nations matches) and Scotland (lost in 2006 and 2000) will be problematic.

And, although their home form at Twickenham is not to be sniffed at, I have an inkling that Wales first time up will be a very close match if they don't completely dominate the visitors up front. And it should not be forgotten that Ireland have won their last four meetings against England, including two at Twickenham.

The odds suggest that it is hard to see any of the other four sides pulling off the Grand Slam, and the [130.0] available about Italy somewhat underplays their chances of beating England and Scotland at home, and Ireland, Wales and France away!

Ireland are [16.5] on Betfair, and they should at least get their tournament off to a winning start when hosting Italy on February 2nd. But will they?

They should have won the Grand Slam last year but for allowing France to sneak a late 20-17 win in Dublin, but they were so poor in the World Cup that is hard to enthuse about their chances. And the fixture list is not too friendly, either.

Their World Cup form was abject - let's not forget that they literally came within an unsighted referee of losing to Georgia (they scraped home 14-10) - and the fact that Paul O'Connell is still not fit means that I can't see them completing the clean sweep that they should have done last season.

Wales are available at [24.0] on the market and they are sure to improve upon last year's dire showing, when only a 27-18 defeat of England rescued some of the pride lost in four earlier defeats, including that controversial 23-20 loss in Italy.

Gatland will instil a greater direction of belief, and they have the three-quarters to damage. And if the pack fronts up as they did against England that day, then who knows?

However, I would want much more than odds of [24.0] about them winning the Grand Slam, even if I do give them an outside chance of an upset in the opener at Twickenham on February 2nd.

Which leaves us with Scotland, who I have become increasingly keen on for this year's tournament.

I have followed the progress of Edinburgh and Glasgow closely in the Heineken Cup this season, and they have a pool of players (their strength in the back row is phenomenal) that will stand toe -to-toe with the national sides. And that is without factoring in a whole host on non-Scottish based players such as Chris Paterson, Nathan Hines, Jason White et al.

Home ties against France and England (they did the double over them in 2006) are clearly much in their favour, and I can see them going close to winning the tournament, and maybe even the Grand Slam, for which they are available at [55.0].

So the only side that I would consider backing to win all five of their matches at the current odds is Scotland at [55.0]; however, the [1.73] No Grand Slam winner screams at me here.