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Scotland to defy the odds, says Stuart Barnes

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Former England international and British Lion Stuart Barnes gives us his take on the upcoming Six Nations

Three new coaching teams and two management teams (Ireland and England's) never more than one shocking performance from debilitating pressure...it all adds up to a wonderful opportunity for the settled Scottish camp to cause a few shocks this season.

If they are to beat France on the first weekend, Mike Blair is bound to be central to everything they do. Frank Hadden has built up a pack large on bulk but short on subtlety which is where the first brain of the Edinburgh scrum half comes into play. His is the role of controlling the direction of the pack and the pace of possession. Without a fly half of proven international ability his role becomes greater than ever. In the three quarter line much needed variety is likely to be introduced in the shape of Nick Da Luca. His arrival in Edinburgh from Borders and the emergence as a classy centre is the biggest individual bonus of the season for Scotland.

In Wales old legs are going to prove every bit as important. In England the rugby public has been glued to the Shaun Edwards saga - a great blow for Wales and a thick black spot against the bureaucratically bound RFU. But his mini coup in convincing Martyn Williams to change his mind and once more wear the red shirt is every bit as important, especially in the short term. Not only do Wales have a flanker in his class but with Ryan Jones made new captain, the Ospreys Number Eight will be delighted for all the experience he can use. Few flankers have more experience or ability than Williams. His return is a boost.

In England the choice of key man is, I am afraid, pretty unoriginal. Jonny Wilkinson's place is not currently open to debate within Twickenham. He will be most people's favourite to be top point scorer even though his strike rate has fallen to around a lowly 60% in the last month. Perception and reality have pulled apart in the case of Wilkinson in the four long years of injury.

England's back play has become a fallow field and although the inside centre has a major role to play, Wilkinson's experience makes him the man who can make them tick. He has struggled to find the keys for a while now. If he returns to anywhere near his best, the World Cup runners up could win this tournament. If he is playing below par England could regress.

On the subject of regression, Ireland claimed the title of World Champion Regressive side and nothing else in France. Over the months player and journo are going to differ often but I can only reiterate the importance of Ireland finding a substitute for O' Connell. The man with the experience and the heart is O'Connell's Munster mate, Donncha O'Callaghan. Long seen as the red-haired hero's faithful sidekick he has to mature into a focus for Ireland and fast if the Irish international heart is to start beating as it did so healthily and so recently.

Another second row with a large amount of responsibility on his plate is Lionel Nallet, back up in the World Cup for France, now elevated to captaincy by Marc Lievremont, the new French head coach. It seems a symbolic move. The days of Bernard Laporte and Fabien Pelous are over and who better than a younger lock to signal the freshness of the start?

As for Italy, we all talk about their rugged pack but someone has to convert the pressure they exert into not just three point penalties but five or seven point tries. In a back line that is all too often blunt, Nick Mallett has to add some sharpness. Full back David Bortolussi missed some crucial kicks in the World Cup defeat against Scotland but this man has what Italy lacks, a touch of class. Let's hope we can say the same for the Six Nations. Down with inconsistency and up with predictable form lines and betting opportunities.

We'll get down to some scheming next week